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I think it's disingenuous to call this a "test". How do you control for the pandemic? Surely, spending habits and measures of "livelihood" are affected by COVID

by dfxm12 6y ago

I think it's disingenuous to call this a "test". How do you control for the pandemic? Surely, spending habits and measures of "livelihood" are affected by COVID-19. How UBI works or doesn't work during a global crisis isn't really indicative of how it might work out under normal circumstances, right?

Robotbeat 6y ago
Doesn’t mean nothing can be learned from doing it. Not every test need be a double blind placebo controlled trial.
- HPsquared 6y ago
  The big factor with covid is, people know it's temporary and still need to keep their careers going. Behaviour would probably be very different for a permanent scheme.
  - kwhitefoot 6y ago
    > The big factor with covid is, people know it's temporary Do we? Some people might believe it but there doesn't seem to a lot of evidence for it yet. If anything it seems that it might behave like other seasonal viruses such as the flu and especially like other coronaviruses such as the common cold. That is it might mutate so rapidly that immunity will not last. So we might have to live with it or something like it for ever.
ttonkytonk 6y ago
It's not true UBI either, it's a "guaranteed minimum income" of about the equivalent of $1000 for households, $500 for individuals, specifically for the "poorest". Personally I favor a UBI but I think it needs an intellectual basis, i.e. I am not for "stealing from the rich". Perhaps part of this intellectual basis could consist of an appreciation that natural resources are not distributed equally.
- gerbal 6y ago
  Wealth is not distributed equally either, those with a lot of resources find it much easier to maintain and gain wealth. Wealth provides a shield against consequences and accidents.
- eru 6y ago
  Why does anything need an intellectual basis? Don't we have democracy so that 'popularity' is basis of policy?
commandlinefan 6y ago
Even the most die-hard UBI critic would concede that UBI would "work" over a short period of time - hell, I'd suspect it could be made sustainable for a couple of decades. The point is that eventually the whole thing will come crashing down and people will start starving to death after the last of the golden goose's eggs are gone. That's not going to happen this summer.
- eru 6y ago
  Well, depends on what you mean by UBI? If you just took all the existing taxes and welfare programmes, carefully noted what net payment people are getting at various income levels, and then replaced it with a simpler system of a fixed UBI payment and a tax system to roughly replicated the same net payments; I don't see how that would be any less sustainable than what we currently have? And current systems have been muddling through in most countries for quite a while so far. However, if by UBI you mean that everyone is supposed to get some extra magic money out of nowhere, yes, that wouldn't really work.
- jostylr 6y ago
  Every system I have ever heard of has the "system will crash in the future" fear. Capitalism will eat up all the resources and pollute us to death. Democracy will lead to mob rule. Philosopher kings get replaced with crappy kings. Social security was supposed to have gone bankrupt several times by now. The thing about UBI is that it in no way, shape or form, prevents people from doing whatever is needed or profitable. There are a number of people which have sufficient funds to live off $1000 a month and they continue to work. Heck, even the bloggers who talk up such schemes are still producing something of value to the society. Humans like to work, just not necessarily for a boss. A UBI removes any disincentive from working and allows you to keep what you make except for the tax rate unlike welfare which taxes income at 100% . It allows you to be creative. Right now, we are ignoring the contributions of millions, if not billions of people because they are kept at the edge of survival. Imagine if we created a world that allowed all the billions of the world to contribute imaginatively, cooperatively, and productively. That is what UBI promises, but it does require faith and trust in humanity (read Rutger Bregman's Humankind book for a primer as to how to shed the lies we've been told about human nature). As for hard maintenance of systems, that will probably cost more to pay people to do it, but it seems very reasonable to reward essential hard work more than we do now. One final thought. What do you expect you or others you know would do if you had $1000 a month per person in your family given? Maybe some would want to sit around for decades doing nothing, but that personally sounds like an awful life to me and I suspect most would agree.

by dfxm12 6y ago

Robotbeat 6y ago

Doesn’t mean nothing can be learned from doing it. Not every test need be a double blind placebo controlled trial.

HPsquared 6y ago
The big factor with covid is, people know it's temporary and still need to keep their careers going. Behaviour would probably be very different for a permanent scheme.
- kwhitefoot 6y ago
  > The big factor with covid is, people know it's temporary Do we? Some people might believe it but there doesn't seem to a lot of evidence for it yet. If anything it seems that it might behave like other seasonal viruses such as the flu and especially like other coronaviruses such as the common cold. That is it might mutate so rapidly that immunity will not last. So we might have to live with it or something like it for ever.

ttonkytonk 6y ago

It's not true UBI either, it's a "guaranteed minimum income" of about the equivalent of $1000 for households, $500 for individuals, specifically for the "poorest". Personally I favor a UBI but I think it needs an intellectual basis, i.e. I am not for "stealing from the rich". Perhaps part of this intellectual basis could consist of an appreciation that natural resources are not distributed equally.

gerbal 6y ago
Wealth is not distributed equally either, those with a lot of resources find it much easier to maintain and gain wealth. Wealth provides a shield against consequences and accidents.
eru 6y ago
Why does anything need an intellectual basis? Don't we have democracy so that 'popularity' is basis of policy?

commandlinefan 6y ago

Even the most die-hard UBI critic would concede that UBI would "work" over a short period of time - hell, I'd suspect it could be made sustainable for a couple of decades. The point is that eventually the whole thing will come crashing down and people will start starving to death after the last of the golden goose's eggs are gone. That's not going to happen this summer.

eru 6y ago
Well, depends on what you mean by UBI? If you just took all the existing taxes and welfare programmes, carefully noted what net payment people are getting at various income levels, and then replaced it with a simpler system of a fixed UBI payment and a tax system to roughly replicated the same net payments; I don't see how that would be any less sustainable than what we currently have? And current systems have been muddling through in most countries for quite a while so far. However, if by UBI you mean that everyone is supposed to get some extra magic money out of nowhere, yes, that wouldn't really work.
jostylr 6y ago
Every system I have ever heard of has the "system will crash in the future" fear. Capitalism will eat up all the resources and pollute us to death. Democracy will lead to mob rule. Philosopher kings get replaced with crappy kings. Social security was supposed to have gone bankrupt several times by now. The thing about UBI is that it in no way, shape or form, prevents people from doing whatever is needed or profitable. There are a number of people which have sufficient funds to live off $1000 a month and they continue to work. Heck, even the bloggers who talk up such schemes are still producing something of value to the society. Humans like to work, just not necessarily for a boss. A UBI removes any disincentive from working and allows you to keep what you make except for the tax rate unlike welfare which taxes income at 100% . It allows you to be creative. Right now, we are ignoring the contributions of millions, if not billions of people because they are kept at the edge of survival. Imagine if we created a world that allowed all the billions of the world to contribute imaginatively, cooperatively, and productively. That is what UBI promises, but it does require faith and trust in humanity (read Rutger Bregman's Humankind book for a primer as to how to shed the lies we've been told about human nature). As for hard maintenance of systems, that will probably cost more to pay people to do it, but it seems very reasonable to reward essential hard work more than we do now. One final thought. What do you expect you or others you know would do if you had $1000 a month per person in your family given? Maybe some would want to sit around for decades doing nothing, but that personally sounds like an awful life to me and I suspect most would agree.