In the 2008 presidential election, Nate Silver accurately predicted 49 of 50 states. In 2010 he predicted 36 of 37 gubernatorial races. In the 2012 presidential

In the 2008 presidential election, Nate Silver accurately predicted 49 of 50 states. In 2010 he predicted 36 of 37 gubernatorial races. In the 2012 presidential election he accurately predicted all 50 states. He didn't do as well in 2016, but still did better than almost anyone else. I mention this not to say that we should trust Nate Silver more than Helmut Norpoth, but to point out that it's easy to find alternate impressive-looking statistical figures. I personally do trust Nate Silver more, though. His models seem to draw from a lot more data.