3 ms·

Yes, but Stanford says the CFR for those under 70 is 0.04% https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/conte

• tingletech 6y ago
  that pre-print says median of 0.04% infection fatality rate for people < 70, based on other pre-prints they analyzed. That is a 1 in 2500 probability of dying if you are infected. 0.25% is what the preprint says for overall infection fatality rate -- 1 in 400 probability of dying if you are infected.
  • Fjolsvith 6y ago
    Not horrible odds. In 2016, the probability of dying in an automotive accident in the US was 1 in 8800. [1] And for the 2017-2018 flu season, the odds of dying from it were 1 in 5400. [2] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... 2. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
    • tingletech 6y ago
      even assuming the preprint is near accurate (which I do not) the numbers were based on infection fatality rate, defined in the preprint as probability of death if infected, not overall. The overall odds that you have died from corvid-19 this season so far in the US are 1 in 2433 (based on 411 deaths per Million population at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ). Often the "not horrible odds" argument is made by someone being dismissive of folks who are following health orders -- I still look both ways if I cross the street.
      • Fjolsvith 6y ago
        Interestingly, those odds are not accurate for everyone, regardless of whether its a COVID death or an automobile accident death. Literally, by spouting your 1/2433 odds, you being disingenuous for most people. A person could greatly reduce their personal odds by taking extra vitamins and eating healthy and getting good sleep, entirely without wearing a mask. Your street crossing example is an example of you following a health order for your own personal safety. You could simply use the crosswalk without looking - that would be you relying on others to wear their mask to ensure your personal safety. When you make your personal safety dependent on my goodwill, I'm going to let you fall, hard.
        • tingletech 6y ago
          I was just trying to get apples to apples numbers to your equally disingenuous numbers. Your point seems to be that folks should not follow health orders since the odds are good for most people, and that you will do your part to make sure folks will get what they deserve?
          • Fjolsvith 6y ago
            People don't get what you think they deserve, they always get what they deserve, period. People haven't worried about flu death rates or (insert other disease) death rates before. Why should I go out of my way to protect someone who won't protect themselves by staying home locked away from the world? After I recovered from my COVID, why should I wear a mask if I'm COVID antibody positive? To make you feel better?
• tomrod 6y ago
  This is a red herring. CFR is not material to infectivity rate