6 ms·

Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

30 points by 23throwaway23 6y ago

battery423 6y ago
In germany we have a drought right now. I never assumed that we in germany get water issues. Now farmers said things like 'i have never seen so little water at this time of year in the 30 years im a farmer'. I don't have the feeling we are recognizing the elephant in the room. My personal take on this is to buy a farm, buy water reserve tanks, have a little garden and trying to become independend. Which is not a bad plan in general as it helps to cut costs down anyway if you do it smart enough. Its not that i get money when i put it in the bank and corona showed how volatile shares can be.
- bzb3 6y ago
  30 years is not a good enough sample. In fact it's pretty bad.
  - battery423 6y ago
    I do combine this with other data i read of course. We do have more data available than just what one farmer experiences. Nonetheless, what is a good response to it? I don't have the feeling that just ignoring it or not doing anything is a good approach.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      It makes me incredibly nervous about what happens when water and food gets scarce and you have cities full of people with no ability to acquire these basic needs from the land. You can desal water on coastal communities with cheap renewables, but you can’t grow food in concrete.
  - aaron-santos 6y ago
    Can you point out a power analysis that quantifies this?
  - 488643689 6y ago
    The farmers are supported by climate scientists and meteorologists. I don't get your sentiment. What's the point of "the issue is more nuanced!!1!" all the time? We collectively need to act now. Everyone of us. You are draining momentum to what end?
- Semaphor 6y ago
  what part has a drought? because here in the north, it has been raining for two weeks. I'm up for a weather exchange...
  - 488643689 6y ago
    I think there is a difference between "it's raining" and it's raining enough. The last two summers lowered the ground water levels and that takes a lot to refill. Here in the mid east it's all "rainy weather" too, but two days of clear skies let's the vegetation's leaves droopy. Humidity is super high all the time, I think most of the water just evaporates and does not reach deeper grounds. Seeing trees sick and dying put climate change on my immediate threat plate 2 years ago. Too late but oh well, I am trying to change the people around me vigorously :)
Proven 6y ago
Nonsense. They have been making these silly doomsday forecasts for 30 years now.
lazyjones 6y ago
Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological_Observatory#/media/File:Temperaturreihe_Hoher_Peißenberg.PNG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological...
- frabbit 6y ago
  It seems very unlikely that this report would fall into the well-known problem of not accounting for urban heat islands: https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.htm https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.ht... Are you specifically clamining that the authors ignored this ?
  - lazyjones 6y ago
    You can only avoid this effect by not using urban stations, claiming the effect is small doesn't solve the problem. I am specifically claiming that there is no known global temperature dataset that is frequently used in such alarming studies and contains no stations affected by the UHI effect. Since the linked article contains no references or links to sources, I cannot be more specific.
- genericone 6y ago
  Now that you mention it, I'd be interested in some sort of map of where all these weather monitoring stations are, with bolder colors indicating stations that have been in longer continuous operation.
  - 23throwaway23 6y ago
    This is how it's typically done: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-meas... There are thousands of measurement stations spread across the globe - on land, in the ocean and in the air. Four independent datasets are generated by different groups: Scientists use four major datasets to study global temperature. The UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit jointly produce HadCRUT4 . In the US, the GISTEMP series comes via the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS), while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) creates the MLOST record. The Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) produces a fourth dataset.
WarOnPrivacy 6y ago
I truly thought we were about to exceed the speed of light before I realized C != c.
- Symbiote 6y ago
  For some incomprehensible reason, the Guardian's style guide specifically says _not_ to use the degree symbol. Perhaps it's an attempt to maintain their reputation for sloppy editing. https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-observer-style-guide-c https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-observer-style-guide-c (under "Celsius")
makerofspoons 6y ago
We seem to be trending right along with the worst case emissions scenario: https://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/files/2018/11/4BDC35FE-0E3C-42F0-93C8-79A4E117C088.png https://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/files/2018/11/4BDC35FE-... Edit: There is also credible evidence we've been underestimating climate sensitivity for years: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5
- 23throwaway23 6y ago
  Given that IPCC and other world bodies suggest we need to be reducing emissions by 7.6% every year for the next decade (starting this year). We're doing the almost exact opposite. The US and China are increasing hostilities and are locked in a downward spiral of increased military spending (and associated emissions). Most of the economic elite, while paying lip service is in utter denial about the direness of the situation. With a few exceptions (New Zealand), every developed and developing society is prioritizing the economy and economic development over the preservation of a viable human future. We're bordering on insanity.
  - zzzcpan 6y ago
    If you want to compare which problems are worse, plenty are much worse than slow effects of climate change, like wars, contagious diseases, exploitation of poor people, poverty and inequality in general, political systems controlled by the rich that want to keep it that way, etc. Those problem cause massive suffering and even death. And what's the worse that could happen to humans due to climate change? Some foods might disappear, some people might need to modify their houses for new weather, some might need to relocate. It's not insane to simply ignore the problem altogether, it's very rational. Now how to solve all those actual problems is a big question.
    - makerofspoons 6y ago
      It will be difficult to tackle any of those problems if the climate causes civilization to collapse: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-ci... It's more than a few foods disappearing or people modifying they're homes- it's entire breadbaskets of the world disappearing and entire cities needing to be abandoned.
freddealmeida 6y ago
Solar minimal will reduce temp. Not increase. This is not the issue.

30 points by 23throwaway23 6y ago

In germany we have a drought right now. I never assumed that we in germany get water issues. Now farmers said things like 'i have never seen so little water at this time of year in the 30 years im a farmer'. I don't have the feeling we are recognizing the elephant in the room. My personal take on this is to buy a farm, buy water reserve tanks, have a little garden and trying to become independend. Which is not a bad plan in general as it helps to cut costs down anyway if you do it smart enough. Its not that i get money when i put it in the bank and corona showed how volatile shares can be.

bzb3 6y ago
30 years is not a good enough sample. In fact it's pretty bad.
- battery423 6y ago
  I do combine this with other data i read of course. We do have more data available than just what one farmer experiences. Nonetheless, what is a good response to it? I don't have the feeling that just ignoring it or not doing anything is a good approach.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    It makes me incredibly nervous about what happens when water and food gets scarce and you have cities full of people with no ability to acquire these basic needs from the land. You can desal water on coastal communities with cheap renewables, but you can’t grow food in concrete.
- aaron-santos 6y ago
  Can you point out a power analysis that quantifies this?
- 488643689 6y ago
  The farmers are supported by climate scientists and meteorologists. I don't get your sentiment. What's the point of "the issue is more nuanced!!1!" all the time? We collectively need to act now. Everyone of us. You are draining momentum to what end?
Semaphor 6y ago
what part has a drought? because here in the north, it has been raining for two weeks. I'm up for a weather exchange...
- 488643689 6y ago
  I think there is a difference between "it's raining" and it's raining enough. The last two summers lowered the ground water levels and that takes a lot to refill. Here in the mid east it's all "rainy weather" too, but two days of clear skies let's the vegetation's leaves droopy. Humidity is super high all the time, I think most of the water just evaporates and does not reach deeper grounds. Seeing trees sick and dying put climate change on my immediate threat plate 2 years ago. Too late but oh well, I am trying to change the people around me vigorously :)

Proven 6y ago

Nonsense. They have been making these silly doomsday forecasts for 30 years now.

lazyjones 6y ago

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological_Observatory#/media/File:Temperaturreihe_Hoher_Peißenberg.PNG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological...

frabbit 6y ago
It seems very unlikely that this report would fall into the well-known problem of not accounting for urban heat islands: https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.htm https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.ht... Are you specifically clamining that the authors ignored this ?
- lazyjones 6y ago
  You can only avoid this effect by not using urban stations, claiming the effect is small doesn't solve the problem. I am specifically claiming that there is no known global temperature dataset that is frequently used in such alarming studies and contains no stations affected by the UHI effect. Since the linked article contains no references or links to sources, I cannot be more specific.
genericone 6y ago
Now that you mention it, I'd be interested in some sort of map of where all these weather monitoring stations are, with bolder colors indicating stations that have been in longer continuous operation.
- 23throwaway23 6y ago
  This is how it's typically done: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-meas... There are thousands of measurement stations spread across the globe - on land, in the ocean and in the air. Four independent datasets are generated by different groups: Scientists use four major datasets to study global temperature. The UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit jointly produce HadCRUT4 . In the US, the GISTEMP series comes via the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS), while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) creates the MLOST record. The Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) produces a fourth dataset.

WarOnPrivacy 6y ago

I truly thought we were about to exceed the speed of light before I realized C != c.

Symbiote 6y ago
For some incomprehensible reason, the Guardian's style guide specifically says _not_ to use the degree symbol. Perhaps it's an attempt to maintain their reputation for sloppy editing. https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-observer-style-guide-c https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-observer-style-guide-c (under "Celsius")

makerofspoons 6y ago

We seem to be trending right along with the worst case emissions scenario: https://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/files/2018/11/4BDC35FE-0E3C-42F0-93C8-79A4E117C088.png https://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/files/2018/11/4BDC35FE-... Edit: There is also credible evidence we've been underestimating climate sensitivity for years: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5

23throwaway23 6y ago
Given that IPCC and other world bodies suggest we need to be reducing emissions by 7.6% every year for the next decade (starting this year). We're doing the almost exact opposite. The US and China are increasing hostilities and are locked in a downward spiral of increased military spending (and associated emissions). Most of the economic elite, while paying lip service is in utter denial about the direness of the situation. With a few exceptions (New Zealand), every developed and developing society is prioritizing the economy and economic development over the preservation of a viable human future. We're bordering on insanity.
- zzzcpan 6y ago
  If you want to compare which problems are worse, plenty are much worse than slow effects of climate change, like wars, contagious diseases, exploitation of poor people, poverty and inequality in general, political systems controlled by the rich that want to keep it that way, etc. Those problem cause massive suffering and even death. And what's the worse that could happen to humans due to climate change? Some foods might disappear, some people might need to modify their houses for new weather, some might need to relocate. It's not insane to simply ignore the problem altogether, it's very rational. Now how to solve all those actual problems is a big question.
  - makerofspoons 6y ago
    It will be difficult to tackle any of those problems if the climate causes civilization to collapse: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-ci... It's more than a few foods disappearing or people modifying they're homes- it's entire breadbaskets of the world disappearing and entire cities needing to be abandoned.

freddealmeida 6y ago

Solar minimal will reduce temp. Not increase. This is not the issue.