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Compare the two: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?

by chvid 6y ago

Compare the two: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC On all fundamental indicators - price to earnings, price to forward earnigs, price to book, dividend yield. NVIDIA is 4 to +10 times as expensive as Intel. Tells you something about how the market sees Intel's future vs NVIDIA's.

Nokinside 6y ago
Although I don't think Intel is very dynamic or good company, I still think INTC is undervalued compared to NVDA, TSMC or AMD over long term (> 5 years). The failure of Intel's 10nm process was a huge hit that keeps hurting them few years, but there is no reason to expect that their next 7nm process is a failure. They made wrong strategic choice when deciding if to use EUV or not.
- andromeduck 6y ago
  The problem is that 10nm wasn't a one off oopsie. It was caused by power struggles in upper management from bad series of successions and high engineering turnover from changing culture, cost cutting and agressive of poaching campaigns from competitors like Apple, Google, and Nvidia.
  - Nokinside 6y ago
    Apple, Google, and Nvidia nave no process knowledge. They don't manufacture their own chips.
godzillabrennus 6y ago
I read that IBM gave its market share to Intel and Microsoft through its missteps to bring a personal computer to market. The story of how Intel managed to screw up graphics, mobile, and now it’s desktop/server chips... that’s almost making IBM management look good at the moment.
- mav3rick 6y ago
  Who is replacing Intel servers ? AMD ?
  - gameswithgo 6y ago
    Yes, the new EPYC cpus offer very good performance and value.
  - BillinghamJ 6y ago
    Also ARM chips for server use is rapidly starting to become a serious thing. It's - of course - very small scale and early days at the moment, but the pricing is very positive and it's something people are starting to think about as a real viable option.
    - chvid 6y ago
      The servers will flip once ARM gets cheap enough to x86. If I have a database and some Java or Ruby running on some Linux then why would I care whether it is on x86 or anything else? However are those ARM CPUs going to be made by NVIDIA? It seems to me that there are other fabless chip producers out there capable of doing this.
      - chrisseaton 6y ago
        > If I have a database and some Java or Ruby running on some Linux then why would I care whether it is on x86 or anything else? Databases, Java, and Ruby, are well-optimised for running on AMD64. Are they all as well-optimised for running on AArch64, for example? I'm not so sure. I still see basic intrinsics being implemented for Java on ARM. I think people may be in for a bit of a shock when they try ARM with some common software.
        amalter 6y ago
        We saw pretty decent performance with AWS Gravitron. The pricing is a bit opaque as AWS might be taking a loss, but M6g.2xlarge steps all over M5.2xlarge on your basic Tomcat/Spring Boot app. Remember there has been a tremendous amount of effort made to make VM's like the JVM and v8 performant on ARM for mobile. Turns out all those intrinsics scale just fine when presented with your typical "Business Application" workload. I think Intel is especially in trouble with JVM workloads as it's very rare for libraries to call out to native code (unlike Python). You really can just drop you jar on an ARM (m6g), AMD (m5a) or Intel (m5, m5n) expect the same results. After a bit of hesitation it will become just a standard part of cloud price optimization. Cloud operators win - Chip vendors get commoditized. (Modulo specialized workloads like HPC, ML and such - but to the topic, that's not to Intel's strength)
thu2111 6y ago
I think NVIDIA stock is seen more as an investment in AI tech generally, rather than NVIDIA specifically. The only other firms making really good AI-focused silicon are companies that don't sell them, only rent them.
Traster 6y ago
Intel failed on mobile, failed on GPUs, struggled on 14nm, failed on 10nm. Intel has been very good at the old "If you sell an AMD CPU you better make a lot of money, because you sure as hell won't make any money out of Intel" but those days are gone. The reaosn their P/E is nowhere is because they're not going to be making any revenue at all in 2025 at this rate short of a government bailout.

chvid 6y ago

Are we anywhere near seeing Microsoft Windows running on ARM? Seems to me that Microsoft doesn't have the same strong incentive to shift away from x86 as Apple has.

Someone 6y ago
They’re not going all-in, but https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/uwp/porting/apps-on-arm https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/uwp/porting/apps-on...: “Originally Windows 10 (as distinguished from Windows 10 Mobile) could run only on PCs that were powered by x86 and x64 processors. Now, Windows 10 desktop can run on machines that are powered by ARM64 processors with the Fall Creators Update or newer. The power-saving nature of the ARM CPU architecture allows these PCs to have all-day battery life and support for mobile data networks. These PCs will provide great application compatibility and allow you to run your existing x86 win32 applications unmodified.”
headmelted 6y ago
I think the market is betting more on AMD than Intel serving that market though. I could have kicked myself for not buying AMD stock years ago, even joked about it with some friends at the time but couldn't afford to take the risk. The reason was (rightly or wrongly) Jim Keller returning to work on Zen. He's worked on a few different and really exciting things since, but he's at Intel now. I suspect they'll sort it out and turn things around, but running their own fabs is their biggest problem now. They aren't competitive with TSMC and they desperately need to be.
- klelatti 6y ago
  Technically Jim Keller is still at Intel as a consultant I think but not for long ... https://www.anandtech.com/show/15846/jim-keller-resigns-from-intel-effective-immediately https://www.anandtech.com/show/15846/jim-keller-resigns-from...
- ethbro 6y ago
  > The reason was (rightly or wrongly) Jim Keller So are you buying Intel stock now?
  - headmelted 6y ago
    Nope. Still can’t afford to take that risk. Also, the circumstances are much different. AMD was valued at the time as a company circling the drain - there was a lot of upside potential given the low starting point. Intel is still valued very highly currently even after it’s problems in the last few years. The thing is - I think they’d need to turn the company around entirely just to justify their current price, let alone any future returns.
pjc50 6y ago
It's been possible for a while but never really taken off. As you say, because Microsoft don't control or profit from the hardware (apart from their own Surfaces) they have no real incentive one way or the other. They did try a more locked down version of Windows, Windows RT, on ARM. It was predictably a disappointment.
- mastax 6y ago
  It's telling that even on hackernews nobody knows about the Surface Pro X.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    Microsoft's grievous inability to name things doesn't help there. At least it's not the XBox One X.
    - mercer 6y ago
      I imagine they'd be stupid enough to follow that up with something like Xbox Series X to denote a completely new console generation! It's only slightly more stupid than following up a smash hit console called a Wii with a completely new one called Wii U! (I mean, seriously, I'm a proper Nintendo fan but somehow I missed an entire console generation because of stupid naming!)
    - fomine3 6y ago
      I'm really curious why they named "Xbox Series X". It's hard to remembering whether it's latest or not for me (non English-native, Japanese).
ccurrens 6y ago
For consumers, I'm not sure. But I know as part of cutting costs, Azure decided to start running servers on ARM instead of x64: https://www.techrepublic.com/article/windows-server-on-arm-microsoft-moves-beyond-intel-in-its-azure-cloud/ https://www.techrepublic.com/article/windows-server-on-arm-m...
ethbro 6y ago
Windows could probably run on ARM tomorrow (or at least, in 6 months) if Microsoft really wanted it to. What it could probably not do is run-on-ARM with acceptable performance for every legacy app. Windows' bread and butter has always been forever-compatibility (Win API language-of-the-year aside) for long lived business apps. Apple has never, and doesn't seem to want to, competed on that front.
als0 6y ago
It already does run on ARM64 but it is only available to OEMs, meaning that you can't buy it as a consumer. And it only runs on some specific SoCs, most of which are Qualcomm ARM chips. Things are likely to change as more actual ARM64 laptops appear. Some Windows on ARM64 laptops are already available like the HP Envy X2, the Lenovo Yoga C630, and the Microsoft Surface Pro X.
Shorel 6y ago
Windows running on ARM is about as valuable as Linux running on ARM. What makes Windows valuable is the 'legacy' applications.