3 ms·
Assuming that continued economic growth takes place (a safe assumption; the so-called third world countries are growing at a fast pace), the net economic result
by vages 6y ago
Assuming that continued economic growth takes place (a safe assumption; the so-called third world countries are growing at a fast pace), the net economic result could still be positive.
Here's a quote from Nick Bostrom from the Wikipedia article:
> Even the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, a report prepared for the British Government which has been criticized by some as overly pessimistic, estimates that under the assumption of business-as-usual with regard to emissions, global warming will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a permanent reduction in per capita consumption of between 5 and 20%. In absolute terms, this would be a huge harm. Yet over the course of the twentieth century, world GDP grew by some 3,700%, and per capita world GDP rose by some 860%. It seems safe to say that (absent a radical overhaul of our best current scientific models of the Earth’s climate system) whatever negative economic effects global warming will have, they will be completely swamped by other factors that will influence economic growth rates in this century.
- eru 6y agoYes, that's what I was aiming at. Fortunately, these days poor countries develop so quick, that even a 20% hit is equivalent to only a few years of growth. However, I would go by the formulation in your quote "swamped by other factors" and not with "the net economic result could still be positive." To make your formulation work, you'd have to say the net impact of business-as-usual growth and climate change. It's easy to misinterpret that. Do keep in mind that difference places on earth will most likely be hit at a different magnitude. So some will suffer more than others. That's a good argument for allowing more migration around the world.