3 ms·

A day later, 30 more deaths and we're now 7th lowest, our Rt is up to 0.99 and 3-day hospitalization average is now going up for the first time in a while. The

• toss1 6y ago
  Yes, the Rt declines before the lockdown are curious, but I wonder if they are statistical anomalies related to initial small numbers or some other factor. It could also be that the people were independently starting to take measures, distancing, masks, etc. I know I was, and I'm not the only one. The chart of inferred infections by date seems to show very strong correlations to the lockdown measures: * very steep rate of rise in cases until 24-March * a bit of reduced slope right at the date * sudden peak/drop-off about a week later on 01-April * steep decline, then flatter decline during lockdown * then, a week after lockdown ends / next phase, around 25-May, the declining slope flattens And the Rt starts to increase again in the last week of May So, yes, the re-opening is looking very much like it's increasing re-transmission rates. Today just hit 1.01 on that chart. Interesting times ahead. New England overall has relatively flat growth rates. Let's hope they continue measures to keep it that way!
  • toss1 6y ago
    Actually, the chart for every state shows the initial high value and steep decline of the Rt rate So, this is likely of no practical value and some kind of data artifact. Best guess is spread before testing, and testing rates ramping up as it spreads, logging new cases at rates faster than they are actually being created, and normalizing to actual Rt rates as the testing catches up