3 ms·

It is dangerous, but how dangerous? Every year, about 1% of the population in the US dies. The median age of COVID deaths is above life expectancy. If you are

It is dangerous, but how dangerous? Every year, about 1% of the population in the US dies. The median age of COVID deaths is above life expectancy. If you are elderly, death from pneumonia is quite likely even without COVID. For a middle aged person, ordinary Influenza is statistically more dangerous than COVID. For a child, Influenza is vastly more dangerous. Efficacy of Influenza vaccination varies seasonally and averages around 50%. Furthermore, COVID death rates are going down across the board, even while cases are rising.

DanBC 6y ago
> Every year, about 1% of the population in the US dies. > The median age of COVID deaths is above life expectancy. If you are elderly, death from pneumonia is quite likely even without COVID. People using the "they were going to die anyway" argument need to explain why they didn't die last year, or next year, but died this year, and died in huge numbers. Excess mortality is pretty high. Research tells us people are dying more than 10 years early. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 > Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). > Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  > People using the "they were going to die anyway" argument need to explain why they didn't die last year, or next year, but died this year, and died in huge numbers. Excess mortality is pretty high. That's not the argument I am making. A lot of older people indeed died sooner than they otherwise would have. COVID is statistically more dangerous to them than Influenza, but also COVID spreads more rapidly than Influenza in a population with zero immunity. > Research tells us people are dying more than 10 years early. This is significantly lower than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which averaged above 20 YLL per case: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3792731/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3792731/ This underlines my point that for younger age groups, COVID is statistically less dangerous than Influenza. Again, the question is not whether COVID is dangerous. It certainly is. The question is, how dangerous?
  - jquery 6y ago
    If I’m reading your link right, it’s 22 years of life lost per 100,000, not per case. I could be misunderstanding.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      They didn't give an average per case in this study, I arrived there by dividing the total amount of years lost by the amount of deaths (1,540/72 = 21.39). That just happens to be close to the years lost per 100k.

DanBC 6y ago

> Every year, about 1% of the population in the US dies. > The median age of COVID deaths is above life expectancy. If you are elderly, death from pneumonia is quite likely even without COVID. People using the "they were going to die anyway" argument need to explain why they didn't die last year, or next year, but died this year, and died in huge numbers. Excess mortality is pretty high. Research tells us people are dying more than 10 years early. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 > Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). > Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

gridlockd 6y ago
> People using the "they were going to die anyway" argument need to explain why they didn't die last year, or next year, but died this year, and died in huge numbers. Excess mortality is pretty high. That's not the argument I am making. A lot of older people indeed died sooner than they otherwise would have. COVID is statistically more dangerous to them than Influenza, but also COVID spreads more rapidly than Influenza in a population with zero immunity. > Research tells us people are dying more than 10 years early. This is significantly lower than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which averaged above 20 YLL per case: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3792731/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3792731/ This underlines my point that for younger age groups, COVID is statistically less dangerous than Influenza. Again, the question is not whether COVID is dangerous. It certainly is. The question is, how dangerous?
- jquery 6y ago
  If I’m reading your link right, it’s 22 years of life lost per 100,000, not per case. I could be misunderstanding.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    They didn't give an average per case in this study, I arrived there by dividing the total amount of years lost by the amount of deaths (1,540/72 = 21.39). That just happens to be close to the years lost per 100k.