> there were actually plenty of people who predicted pretty much exactly what would happen and why You have the full spectrum of opinions on what will happen a

> there were actually plenty of people who predicted pretty much exactly what would happen and why You have the full spectrum of opinions on what will happen and why for pretty much every non-trivial topic. It's the power of hindsight that lets you select the correct ones and maybe even assume that it was indeed trivial, all the information was out there. Would you bet your life savings on that one person who predicts against the trend? That's not dumb, it's realistic and cautious. In some situations the risk isn't worth it.