4 ms·
Helmets, mandatory exercise, and fasting are all things that improve the health of that single individual. In contrast smoking, vaccines, or masks are about ext
by ryan_j_naughton 6y ago
Helmets, mandatory exercise, and fasting are all things that improve the health of that single individual. In contrast smoking, vaccines, or masks are about externalities. We are more hesitant to regulate something an individual chooses to do if it only affects himself/herself. But the moment your actions have an effect upon me without my consent or a market transaction dictating it, then it is a market failure and a legitimate case for government intervention. Thus, the pointing a gun at people is an apt parallel.
As for your CDC PDF, is your point that there were 131,858 pneumonia deaths in 2014-2015 as a way to make it seem like the COVID-19 death count is in line with that? Because that is just ludicrous
There have been 133K deaths in the US out of 3.05M confirmed cases. Studies on the disease being asymptomatic have found it is asymptomatic around 20% of the time. This was from situations like the aircraft carrier where they tested everyone onboard or sports leagues. Thus, they were testing those entire populations. In both cases, those were some of the healthiest, fittest, youngest people compared to the broader population. Thus, there is no reason to think that they were underestimates of the level of asymptomaticness. But for the sake of demonstration, let's assume that we are undercounting the number of infections by 5X. Thus, there would be 15M people currently infected (as opposed to the 3M confirmed cases).
With that, the disease would have a fatality rate of 133K/15M, which is 0.89%.
While that might seem low, when you combine that with how insanely infectious this disease is (where any reasonable estimate would have this thing going through virtually the entire population without extreme social distancing). Thus, let's assume in a world without masks and social distancing we would have around 200M people infected.
That would be 1.78M deaths. That is more than the entire death count in your CDC pdf (1,769,940). Thus, more people would die from COVID-19 this year than all regular deaths combined. And this is with that 5X case count adjustment.
No offense, but you sound like a libertarian who never actually took the time to study economics in order to truly understand the nature of externalities. You are just mad are people infringing what you perceive to be your rights yet you are unwilling to acknowledge that you are infringing their rights through these negative externalities.
It would be worth reading Ronald Coase's "The Problem of Social Cost"[1] to perhaps refresh your knowledge of externalities. In it, he describes a situation (first described by Pigou) wherein a train catches a field on fire with sparks. He analyzes how if you force the train to not do this and side with the farmer, you are harming the train. While if you allow the train to do this, then you are harming the farmer. That is the nature of a negative externality -- inherently one person's perceived liberty/rights are infringed by another in either direction. But then if both rights are in conflict with one another, then surely they cannot both truly be rights for each cannot be maintained without the violation of the other. Thus, it is the role of the government to settle this by defining who has what rights.
[1] https://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/file/coase-problem.pdf https://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/file/coase-problem.pdf
- jakeogh 6y ago"about externalities" hence asking if (you now) support socialized medicine. Again, I dont need to make the connection. It's obvious isnt it? "pointing a gun at people is an apt parallel" parallel to what? Not wearing a fake face mask? The face masks are giving the people that need a real mask[1] a false sense of safety. It's entirely possible, even likely that the effect is negative. Comparing virus transmission to a direct threat to life shows frankly that you are not making a serious argument. Think I'm wrong about that? Why not attach some numbers to your example? "there were 131,858 pneumonia deaths in 2014-2015 as a way to make it seem like the COVID-19 death count is in line with that?" Yes. Ignoring the over-counting, it's roughly 2x a normal flu. Note you dont even try to get a # for non-covid flu/pneumonia for the pandemic part of 2019/2020. It's a glaring omission, I pointed it out in my first comment (and many before that) because, nobody will do it. Why is that? "With that, the disease would have a fatality rate of 133K/15M, which is 0.89%." Yep. But it's even lower. The error bars on your estimate are easily >20%[2]. People have pre-exising antibodies. Why ignore that video I posted? Or my comment that "The only real measure is excess deaths"? Why are we not talking about excess deaths? Are you going to argue that all COVID-19 deaths are because of the virus? It's clearly not true, and that is officially acked. I posed that explanation, it's common knowledge. "how insanely infectious this disease is (where any reasonable estimate would have this thing going through virtually the entire population without extreme social distancing)." We flattened the curve. I assume agree. Germany is the only country that comes close to our death stats. Now you are going to claim that the virus isnt going to infect most people? 1.78M deaths! Seriously, someone should make a list of forum COVID-19 death predictions. These predictions of millions dead are 100% incorrect, but some people keep making them. It's not established that anything we did significantly changed the outcome, certainly not using fake masks. There is even a country where the masks were banned. "no offense" None taken, it's pretty common to try and label people. If the socialists get their way, we can label everything a negative externality, cant we? ----Why not use the masks forever?---- [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-s...