The data shows that these two do not balance each other out. Otherwise there would be no excess mortality, or it would be negative, i.e., less deaths. From just

The data shows that these two do not balance each other out. Otherwise there would be no excess mortality, or it would be negative, i.e., less deaths. From just looking at this metric, we can't tell - but other metrics like car accidents per month per capita do show that this is the case. One interesting thing is that COVID-19 lowers the mortality rate in the mid-to-long term. It disproportionately targets the weakest, so in the next couple of months and years, less people than the expected average will die, because the weakest are already dead, and that will lower the mortality rate per capita for one generation at least. At some point, it will hopefully raise again, and that too will be due to COVID-19, because the reason for that will be that we wouldn't have a recent-enough COVID-19-like event. --- Point being, one should be careful when comparing mortality rates and absolute death counts. One needs to factor in both to get the full picture, and for rate, the period over which the rate is computed is very relevant.