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I feel like there’s a weird god of the gaps element to covid harm. Instead of recognizing that seemingly an overwhelming majority of people are fine and don’t s

I feel like there’s a weird god of the gaps element to covid harm. Instead of recognizing that seemingly an overwhelming majority of people are fine and don’t suffer much adverse effects if any, there’s this automatic dwelling on extremely low probability extreme “invisible damage”. I’m increasingly convinced people are unsettled by the possibility that this could be anything other than civilization ending and the mask averse amongst us aren’t murderers. The desire for moral condemnation is too strong.

badRNG 6y ago
> I’m increasingly convinced people are unsettled by the possibility that this could be anything other than civilization ending and the mask averse amongst us aren’t murderers. In just the past couple of months, COVID-19 has racked up a body count of 130,000 dead Americans. For perspective, that's forty-five 9/11s worth of dead people. Asking people to wear a mask in public to curtail the spread saves lives. This has nothing to do with "desiring moral condemnation." The "mask adverse" can likely bear the burden of at least 1/45 of the deaths America has had compared to it's less "mask adverse" peers. I absolutely hate wearing a mask, I'm "mask adverse" like yourself, but I wear one since this is a trolley problem where pulling the lever means I have to be uncomfortable for a few hours.
- jakeogh 6y ago
  So, roughly twice as bad as a normal year flu/pneumonia count? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pneumonia-deaths-2008-2015.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn... CDC #'s 2015-2016 Flu: 7,961 Pneumonia: 131,858 All: 1,769,940 And, the death stats are inflated, it's official: http://v6y.net/1541e03e6cfd1442590bc7b5476f88c30a29a0d881bdb943bb48c3cfb6cdf527.mp4 http://v6y.net/1541e03e6cfd1442590bc7b5476f88c30a29a0d881bdb... The only real measure is excess deaths.
  - Fjolsvith 6y ago
    "The state of Florida has had 82,397 people 34 & under test positive for the coronavirus. Of that number, 28 have died. That’s a coronavirus death rate of .00034. They’ve had 144,210 54 and under test positive. That’s a .0016 death rate." [1] 1. https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1280250042603929604 https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1280250042603929604
    - akiselev 6y ago
      That is some seriously disingenuous math. Whoever came up with that calculation is deliberately trying to mislead (aka lying) or is utterly incapable of grasping the concept of time. A month ago, Florida had 66,000 confirmed cases. Now it has over 200,000. With a virus take takes two to eight weeks (or more) to kill, we haven't even begun to see the real death rate.
      - hi_hello 6y ago
        Yep. Even without accounting for the lagging death metric, the present mortality rate in FL, all ages, is around 1.7% (3.8k deaths/213.8k confirmed)[1]. .. side note, 20452 confirmed cases per million residents of Miami-Dade. 2% of the population, geez. [1] https://covid-19.direct/county/FL/ https://covid-19.direct/county/FL/
        jakeogh 6y ago
        Where are the FL excess death stats?
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  > I absolutely hate wearing a mask, I'm "mask adverse" like yourself I'm actually not mask averse! I wear a mask all the time. I'm just interested and unsettled by what seems to be a pervasive, immediate, visceral moral reaction that fits all to well into the moral superiority and virtue signalling zeitgeist. That reaction to seeing someone without a mask is not an analytical judgement based in evidence - almost no one who feels this way is reading the literature or following the inconsistent scientific position of the effectiveness of mask wearing that's changed 180deg seemingly overnight. They're making moral judgments. I've seen enough people saying frankly "it's about showing you care."
JoshTriplett 6y ago
> the mask averse amongst us "mask averse"? Really? We're talking about people who knowingly risk the lives of others; that's not their risk to take. Even without all the potential complications we're still discovering in survivors, we already know it kills people at a high rate. I wouldn't go as far as "murder" unless someone actually knowingly had the disease and spread it to others, but "criminally negligent" would not be even slightly unwarranted. You don't point a gun at other people and pull the trigger just because you don't think there's a bullet in it. It's not always easy to visualize "small probability of large harm", but the longer people keep fighting against steps like wearing a mask or not going out, the longer and more serious this will become, and the more people will die. "mask averse" is one of the major differences between places that have this more-or-less under control for the moment and places that don't. There is no valid excuse to be anywhere around other people without some form of mask right now. None whatsoever. (Better yet, keep staying home if you possibly can, but that there are certainly some legitimate reasons to not do.) Arguing against mask is like arguing you should be able to go without vaccination (which people do, but that is rightfully treated as conspiracy-theory-level harmful misinformation) or blow secondhand smoke in people's faces (except with a higher degree of potential harm from short-term exposure).
- jakeogh 6y ago
  Just say it. Forever. Right? This viral class never goes away. The masks are psudoscience mixed with the psychology[1] of fear unless they are desinged for viruses[2]. [1] https://stpauls.vxcommunity.com/Issue/Us-Experiment-On-Infants-Withholding-Affection/13213 https://stpauls.vxcommunity.com/Issue/Us-Experiment-On-Infan... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 You argue "There is no valid excuse", well, why not use a mask desinged for viruses instead of making medical decisions for other people? What's next? Are you going to claim "There is no valid excuse to be anywhere around other people without proving you have had medical procedure X"? A real mask actually protects the person using it. If you reply, please consider clicking [2], and get the non-covid-19 flu/pneumonia stats/estimate/count for 2020 and compare to the CDC pdf.
  - JoshTriplett 6y ago
cameldrv 6y ago
I can see someone being lockdown averse. Having to stay home all the time is a real drag. IMO it was (and is in many places) necessary, but what's the big deal with wearing a mask? Suppose COVID turns out to be nothing, what have you really lost by wearing a mask for a few months? Heck, if you have some phobia, wear a face shield.
- pasquinelli 6y ago
  if you do physical work in heat wearing a mask, you won't be asking how soneone could be mask averse.
  - Fjolsvith 6y ago
    An N95 mask doesn't meet OSHA's deadspace oxygen and carbon dioxide level requirements: "The FFR dead-space oxygen and carbon dioxide levels did not meet the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s ambient workplace standards. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy healthcare workers, FFR did not impose any important physiological burden during 1 hour of use, at realistic clinical work rates, but the FFR dead-space carbon dioxide and oxygen levels were significantly above and below, respectively, the ambient workplace standards, and elevated PCO2 is a possibility." [1] 1. http://www.rcjournal.com/contents/05.10/05.10.0569.pdf http://www.rcjournal.com/contents/05.10/05.10.0569.pdf
    - Fjolsvith 6y ago
      You could probably file an OSHA complaint if you were required by your employer to wear an N95 mask.
    - cameldrv 6y ago
      Yes, the mask's dead space has CO2 above OSHA ambient workplace standards. To wit, they were about 3000 ppm. That's because the mask dead space contains your exhaled breath. However, an N95 mask's dead space is 100-150ml. The tidal volumes they measured were about 1000ml. That means that only 10-15% of the air you're breathing in is from inside the mask. So, for example, if you're outside at 400ppm, you'd see an increase of net CO2 to 660ppm. If you're indoors at say 800ppm, you'd see an increase to 1020ppm. This is well within OSHA limits and is very unlikely to be noticeable. Crucially, the study did not see a significant increase in blood CO2.
coding123 6y ago
The pandemic could be over if 100% of the population wears them for just 2 months. That's a way better deal than what the mask averse are going to give us which is 12-15months and probably a few million more US lives over that timespan.
- refurb 6y ago
  No way. Sure you could get it down to a few cases, but compliance is never 100% and it would flare up very quickly. The only things masks do is slow the spread (which is obviously a good thing for hospitals). If we don't get a vaccine we'll be maintaining some sort of protection (masks, distancing) but every single person will be infected eventually.
  - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
    Other countries have managed to get it under control by testing and contact tracing. If we could "get it down to a few cases", as you say, we could do the same thing. In the current environment in the US, that seems impossible.
    - refurb 6y ago
      Sure and those countries have effectively closed their borders. How long can they keep that up for?
      - irjustin 6y ago
        If you're willing to let tourism die, near indefinitely?
      - ben-schaaf 6y ago
        I'm not fully up to date on the US situation but haven't they effectively shut down all borders as well, or at least have had their borders closed on them?
        6y ago
samcodes 6y ago
> the mask averse amongst us Oh can we coin a term like this for drunk driving? You know, when it’s more convenient to drive home drunk than leave your car out? That’s just being taxi-averse

badRNG 6y ago

> I’m increasingly convinced people are unsettled by the possibility that this could be anything other than civilization ending and the mask averse amongst us aren’t murderers. In just the past couple of months, COVID-19 has racked up a body count of 130,000 dead Americans. For perspective, that's forty-five 9/11s worth of dead people. Asking people to wear a mask in public to curtail the spread saves lives. This has nothing to do with "desiring moral condemnation." The "mask adverse" can likely bear the burden of at least 1/45 of the deaths America has had compared to it's less "mask adverse" peers. I absolutely hate wearing a mask, I'm "mask adverse" like yourself, but I wear one since this is a trolley problem where pulling the lever means I have to be uncomfortable for a few hours.

jakeogh 6y ago
So, roughly twice as bad as a normal year flu/pneumonia count? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pneumonia-deaths-2008-2015.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn... CDC #'s 2015-2016 Flu: 7,961 Pneumonia: 131,858 All: 1,769,940 And, the death stats are inflated, it's official: http://v6y.net/1541e03e6cfd1442590bc7b5476f88c30a29a0d881bdb943bb48c3cfb6cdf527.mp4 http://v6y.net/1541e03e6cfd1442590bc7b5476f88c30a29a0d881bdb... The only real measure is excess deaths.
- Fjolsvith 6y ago
  "The state of Florida has had 82,397 people 34 & under test positive for the coronavirus. Of that number, 28 have died. That’s a coronavirus death rate of .00034. They’ve had 144,210 54 and under test positive. That’s a .0016 death rate." [1] 1. https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1280250042603929604 https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1280250042603929604
  - akiselev 6y ago
    That is some seriously disingenuous math. Whoever came up with that calculation is deliberately trying to mislead (aka lying) or is utterly incapable of grasping the concept of time. A month ago, Florida had 66,000 confirmed cases. Now it has over 200,000. With a virus take takes two to eight weeks (or more) to kill, we haven't even begun to see the real death rate.
    - hi_hello 6y ago
      Yep. Even without accounting for the lagging death metric, the present mortality rate in FL, all ages, is around 1.7% (3.8k deaths/213.8k confirmed)[1]. .. side note, 20452 confirmed cases per million residents of Miami-Dade. 2% of the population, geez. [1] https://covid-19.direct/county/FL/ https://covid-19.direct/county/FL/
      - jakeogh 6y ago
        Where are the FL excess death stats?
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
> I absolutely hate wearing a mask, I'm "mask adverse" like yourself I'm actually not mask averse! I wear a mask all the time. I'm just interested and unsettled by what seems to be a pervasive, immediate, visceral moral reaction that fits all to well into the moral superiority and virtue signalling zeitgeist. That reaction to seeing someone without a mask is not an analytical judgement based in evidence - almost no one who feels this way is reading the literature or following the inconsistent scientific position of the effectiveness of mask wearing that's changed 180deg seemingly overnight. They're making moral judgments. I've seen enough people saying frankly "it's about showing you care."

JoshTriplett 6y ago

> the mask averse amongst us "mask averse"? Really? We're talking about people who knowingly risk the lives of others; that's not their risk to take. Even without all the potential complications we're still discovering in survivors, we already know it kills people at a high rate. I wouldn't go as far as "murder" unless someone actually knowingly had the disease and spread it to others, but "criminally negligent" would not be even slightly unwarranted. You don't point a gun at other people and pull the trigger just because you don't think there's a bullet in it. It's not always easy to visualize "small probability of large harm", but the longer people keep fighting against steps like wearing a mask or not going out, the longer and more serious this will become, and the more people will die. "mask averse" is one of the major differences between places that have this more-or-less under control for the moment and places that don't. There is no valid excuse to be anywhere around other people without some form of mask right now. None whatsoever. (Better yet, keep staying home if you possibly can, but that there are certainly some legitimate reasons to not do.) Arguing against mask is like arguing you should be able to go without vaccination (which people do, but that is rightfully treated as conspiracy-theory-level harmful misinformation) or blow secondhand smoke in people's faces (except with a higher degree of potential harm from short-term exposure).

jakeogh 6y ago
Just say it. Forever. Right? This viral class never goes away. The masks are psudoscience mixed with the psychology[1] of fear unless they are desinged for viruses[2]. [1] https://stpauls.vxcommunity.com/Issue/Us-Experiment-On-Infants-Withholding-Affection/13213 https://stpauls.vxcommunity.com/Issue/Us-Experiment-On-Infan... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633 You argue "There is no valid excuse", well, why not use a mask desinged for viruses instead of making medical decisions for other people? What's next? Are you going to claim "There is no valid excuse to be anywhere around other people without proving you have had medical procedure X"? A real mask actually protects the person using it. If you reply, please consider clicking [2], and get the non-covid-19 flu/pneumonia stats/estimate/count for 2020 and compare to the CDC pdf.
- JoshTriplett 6y ago

cameldrv 6y ago

I can see someone being lockdown averse. Having to stay home all the time is a real drag. IMO it was (and is in many places) necessary, but what's the big deal with wearing a mask? Suppose COVID turns out to be nothing, what have you really lost by wearing a mask for a few months? Heck, if you have some phobia, wear a face shield.

pasquinelli 6y ago
if you do physical work in heat wearing a mask, you won't be asking how soneone could be mask averse.
- Fjolsvith 6y ago
  An N95 mask doesn't meet OSHA's deadspace oxygen and carbon dioxide level requirements: "The FFR dead-space oxygen and carbon dioxide levels did not meet the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s ambient workplace standards. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy healthcare workers, FFR did not impose any important physiological burden during 1 hour of use, at realistic clinical work rates, but the FFR dead-space carbon dioxide and oxygen levels were significantly above and below, respectively, the ambient workplace standards, and elevated PCO2 is a possibility." [1] 1. http://www.rcjournal.com/contents/05.10/05.10.0569.pdf http://www.rcjournal.com/contents/05.10/05.10.0569.pdf
  - Fjolsvith 6y ago
    You could probably file an OSHA complaint if you were required by your employer to wear an N95 mask.
  - cameldrv 6y ago
    Yes, the mask's dead space has CO2 above OSHA ambient workplace standards. To wit, they were about 3000 ppm. That's because the mask dead space contains your exhaled breath. However, an N95 mask's dead space is 100-150ml. The tidal volumes they measured were about 1000ml. That means that only 10-15% of the air you're breathing in is from inside the mask. So, for example, if you're outside at 400ppm, you'd see an increase of net CO2 to 660ppm. If you're indoors at say 800ppm, you'd see an increase to 1020ppm. This is well within OSHA limits and is very unlikely to be noticeable. Crucially, the study did not see a significant increase in blood CO2.

coding123 6y ago

The pandemic could be over if 100% of the population wears them for just 2 months. That's a way better deal than what the mask averse are going to give us which is 12-15months and probably a few million more US lives over that timespan.

refurb 6y ago
No way. Sure you could get it down to a few cases, but compliance is never 100% and it would flare up very quickly. The only things masks do is slow the spread (which is obviously a good thing for hospitals). If we don't get a vaccine we'll be maintaining some sort of protection (masks, distancing) but every single person will be infected eventually.
- amanaplanacanal 6y ago
  Other countries have managed to get it under control by testing and contact tracing. If we could "get it down to a few cases", as you say, we could do the same thing. In the current environment in the US, that seems impossible.
  - refurb 6y ago
    Sure and those countries have effectively closed their borders. How long can they keep that up for?
    - irjustin 6y ago
      If you're willing to let tourism die, near indefinitely?
    - ben-schaaf 6y ago
      I'm not fully up to date on the US situation but haven't they effectively shut down all borders as well, or at least have had their borders closed on them?
      - 6y ago

samcodes 6y ago

> the mask averse amongst us Oh can we coin a term like this for drunk driving? You know, when it’s more convenient to drive home drunk than leave your car out? That’s just being taxi-averse