37 ms·
I'm curious what we'll see years down the line. If there are excess deaths now and this disease disproportionately impacts the elderly, the assumption likely i
by malandrew 6y ago
I'm curious what we'll see years down the line.
If there are excess deaths now and this disease disproportionately impacts the elderly, the assumption likely is that it's mostly picking people off early and that 1+ years from now we should observe a deaths deficit relative to the baseline years of 2018-2019. From there we should be able to start calculating the cumulative years of life lost.
- kolinko 6y agoSo far the countries that got infections under control returned to baseline excess mortality.
- malandrew 6y agoThat's what I would expect if they got it under control quickly. It's the countries where it has gone wild for several months, especially in long term care facilities, where I would expect the drop in future months/years.
- LandR 6y agoScotland last week was back to being below our 5 year average for deaths.