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So the sample story was about how the police achieved their metrics through unsavory methods because it was too hard/too much work to do it the "correct" way?

So the sample story was about how the police achieved their metrics through unsavory methods because it was too hard/too much work to do it the "correct" way? Is the problem then how you go about achieving the metrics? Let's say that you always pair metrics with an approval process for how you plan to achieve those metrics. Presumably when the police chief gives a presentation on how he plans to reduce crime rate by throwing out crime reports, the committee would be none too pleased. Does that theoretically handle the majority of cases where enacting metrics has adverse effects, or does it fall on the other side of 80/20? Or maybe actors are always so inclined to lie and cheat that there's no point in even exploring such an approach.

hansvm 6y ago
"My plan is to <blank>." The chief then does <blank>. Sociology is hard, so even if <blank> sounds plausible it doesn't help. However, lying about the paperwork does still help, and because they submitted a plausible plan (that they followed through on) there isn't any investigation. Worse yet, other people might be actively misled by <blank>'s apparent success and fail to implement it in their precinct with positive outcomes.
yew 6y ago
Presumably the optimal solution would be to prepare fake but easily executed plans (tuned to appeal to whoever's on the committee) to go with your fake numbers. But probably no amount of regulating police will help if your regulators are also chasing metrics (say, to make themselves look better than their opponent for voters). Random sampling is one effective (if adversarial) way to validate numbers. For policing I guess that looks like "secret citizens" reporting crimes and sending the results back up the chain? But that doesn't solve the second half of the problem.
- hef19898 6y ago
  You optimize what you measure, don't you? It is crucial to that any set of metrics considers this effect. DOne right, a metrics system points an organisation is the "right" direction and sets priorities for everone. Done wrong, and the organisation will run, sometimes ruthlessly efficient, in the wrong direction. For policing, just counting the number of arrests and tickets written (something German police is guilty of to certain degree), pushes investigations and police work to pursueing "easy" crimes. And sometimes harassing people for minor stuff to meet numbers. No idea what could be a better way, absennce of issues is so hard to quantify and faces the same risk of optimizing for one thing at the cost of another.

hansvm 6y ago

"My plan is to <blank>." The chief then does <blank>. Sociology is hard, so even if <blank> sounds plausible it doesn't help. However, lying about the paperwork does still help, and because they submitted a plausible plan (that they followed through on) there isn't any investigation. Worse yet, other people might be actively misled by <blank>'s apparent success and fail to implement it in their precinct with positive outcomes.

yew 6y ago

Presumably the optimal solution would be to prepare fake but easily executed plans (tuned to appeal to whoever's on the committee) to go with your fake numbers. But probably no amount of regulating police will help if your regulators are also chasing metrics (say, to make themselves look better than their opponent for voters). Random sampling is one effective (if adversarial) way to validate numbers. For policing I guess that looks like "secret citizens" reporting crimes and sending the results back up the chain? But that doesn't solve the second half of the problem.

hef19898 6y ago
You optimize what you measure, don't you? It is crucial to that any set of metrics considers this effect. DOne right, a metrics system points an organisation is the "right" direction and sets priorities for everone. Done wrong, and the organisation will run, sometimes ruthlessly efficient, in the wrong direction. For policing, just counting the number of arrests and tickets written (something German police is guilty of to certain degree), pushes investigations and police work to pursueing "easy" crimes. And sometimes harassing people for minor stuff to meet numbers. No idea what could be a better way, absennce of issues is so hard to quantify and faces the same risk of optimizing for one thing at the cost of another.