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It has much less to do with people dying directly from Covid and more to do with the sheer number of severe Covid cases overloading healthcare systems to the po

It has much less to do with people dying directly from Covid and more to do with the sheer number of severe Covid cases overloading healthcare systems to the point that patients with other serious conditions can't receive medical treatment. This occurred in Italy, New York City, etc., and is now being seen in some cities in Texas and Florida. This condition is what incentivizes societies to lock down, not just the mere occurrence of a new disease. If a society's healthcare system can handle a severe influx of serious Covid cases, then you typically have seen that government's restrictions lift.

TMWNN 6y ago
>This occurred in Italy, New York City, etc., and is now being seen in some cities in Texas and Florida. Not Florida. An article from yesterday (https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-less-than-25-of-its-icu-beds-available/ https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-l...) ominously claims that "less than 25%" of ICU beds are available in the state, but actually read it and see that 90% occupancy rates are normal, and only a few of those in the ICU are COVID19 cases. Texas? Let's look at Houston, where for a month it's been "we'll be running out of ICU beds in two weeks" every week. Italian and New York hospitals were overwhelmed because a) both places put sick elderly into old age homes. b) Like elsewhere early on, doctors put everyone serious onto ventilators in a mistaken belief that they should treat patients like they do ARDS cases based on blood oxygen levels. This damaged healthy lung sacs and caused long-term dependence on mechanical respiration that doctors found almost impossible to wean patients from, and other side effects like deep vein thrombosis; Nick Cordero is a recent example. This article from three months ago (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...) was completely vindicated in retrospect. (And even NYC being overwhelmed was thankfully temporary. That's why the military hospital ship sent there was not used.) The mean time between symptoms and death is 14 days (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...). 99% of cases where people with COVID19 stay in the hospital for months is because of b), and neither a) nor b) is happening now.
- whoisthemachine 6y ago
  Thanks for this response, its a good counterpoint with solid evidence, but the main point still stands - societies aren't merely shutting down because of a virus - it's because of a fear of healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  56 Florida ICUs are at capacity, with a further 35 are above 90%[0]. Five days ago the largest hospital operator in Houston, TMC announced that they were at 102% [1]. There’s a little bit of flexibility there; TMC can get that down to 72% by converting every possible bed to an ICU space[2], but they are now operating above official capacity. I agree that there’s a lot to criticize in how NYC handled their hospitals, and that in a pinch hospitals in Texas and Florida can scrounge up extra beds. But those hospitals are filling up. 0: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday... 1: https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5efcd4b7c5b612083c5618d0?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB4puAz6124c5PVOTNBmKJcefVIWGvN7618T6mprHDPVJn1IPVfi3xnajvIPr8plnabrhVAZGg3agOtnho4eryqL5mCS1ASae6uuKD6MIE9QWM0KDp3X9DazFKNYypIuSesEYoqX5KRv4SgA-3Yf5maOeqr-eNndVNKrcRGyCp3m https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5efcd4b7c5b612083c5618d0?... 2: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-hospitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/...
  - TMWNN 6y ago
    >56 Florida ICUs are at capacity, with a further 35 are above 90% There are 306 ICUs in Florida (https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHospital?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHo...). As of today, 16.8% of all ICU beds are available. As I said, a 90% ICU load is normal; hospitals routinely transfer patients elsewhere to maximize utilization across as many facilities as possible. Again, only a small portion of ICU patients are there for COVID19, and a good chunk of the remainder are people who postponed procedures during the lockdown.

TMWNN 6y ago

>This occurred in Italy, New York City, etc., and is now being seen in some cities in Texas and Florida. Not Florida. An article from yesterday (https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-less-than-25-of-its-icu-beds-available/ https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-l...) ominously claims that "less than 25%" of ICU beds are available in the state, but actually read it and see that 90% occupancy rates are normal, and only a few of those in the ICU are COVID19 cases. Texas? Let's look at Houston, where for a month it's been "we'll be running out of ICU beds in two weeks" every week. Italian and New York hospitals were overwhelmed because a) both places put sick elderly into old age homes. b) Like elsewhere early on, doctors put everyone serious onto ventilators in a mistaken belief that they should treat patients like they do ARDS cases based on blood oxygen levels. This damaged healthy lung sacs and caused long-term dependence on mechanical respiration that doctors found almost impossible to wean patients from, and other side effects like deep vein thrombosis; Nick Cordero is a recent example. This article from three months ago (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...) was completely vindicated in retrospect. (And even NYC being overwhelmed was thankfully temporary. That's why the military hospital ship sent there was not used.) The mean time between symptoms and death is 14 days (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...). 99% of cases where people with COVID19 stay in the hospital for months is because of b), and neither a) nor b) is happening now.

whoisthemachine 6y ago
Thanks for this response, its a good counterpoint with solid evidence, but the main point still stands - societies aren't merely shutting down because of a virus - it's because of a fear of healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
ashtonkem 6y ago
56 Florida ICUs are at capacity, with a further 35 are above 90%[0]. Five days ago the largest hospital operator in Houston, TMC announced that they were at 102% [1]. There’s a little bit of flexibility there; TMC can get that down to 72% by converting every possible bed to an ICU space[2], but they are now operating above official capacity. I agree that there’s a lot to criticize in how NYC handled their hospitals, and that in a pinch hospitals in Texas and Florida can scrounge up extra beds. But those hospitals are filling up. 0: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday... 1: https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5efcd4b7c5b612083c5618d0?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB4puAz6124c5PVOTNBmKJcefVIWGvN7618T6mprHDPVJn1IPVfi3xnajvIPr8plnabrhVAZGg3agOtnho4eryqL5mCS1ASae6uuKD6MIE9QWM0KDp3X9DazFKNYypIuSesEYoqX5KRv4SgA-3Yf5maOeqr-eNndVNKrcRGyCp3m https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5efcd4b7c5b612083c5618d0?... 2: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-hospitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/...
- TMWNN 6y ago
  >56 Florida ICUs are at capacity, with a further 35 are above 90% There are 306 ICUs in Florida (https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHospital?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHo...). As of today, 16.8% of all ICU beds are available. As I said, a 90% ICU load is normal; hospitals routinely transfer patients elsewhere to maximize utilization across as many facilities as possible. Again, only a small portion of ICU patients are there for COVID19, and a good chunk of the remainder are people who postponed procedures during the lockdown.