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The inclusion of Vietnam on these lists always surprises me. There is no excess mortality data for Vietnam, nor any data on infections (e.g. from random populat
by _-___________-_ 6y ago
The inclusion of Vietnam on these lists always surprises me. There is no excess mortality data for Vietnam, nor any data on infections (e.g. from random population sampling). All we have is their self-reported number of cases (i.e. confirmed infections) and deaths (zero!), which come from triumphant news releases from the Communist Party (usually paired with reminders about how great this success will be for their economy in the post-COVID world), repeated with zero critical thought by overseas media.
- Nobody knows if there was some excess mortality here, because there's no monitoring.
- There were thousands of "suspected cases" in the official reports, which remained suspected cases and never progressed to a confirmed case or a confirmed non-case (as they would if they were tested) until they stopped reporting numbers.
- People with confirmed close contact with known cases were told to isolate and were only tested if they showed symptoms (this is also normal practice in many/most Western countries).
- The supposed "large" number of tests carried out in Vietnam represents only 0.2% of the population.
- A significant portion of those tests are of people who had to be tested anyway, rather than community testing (e.g. overseas Vietnamese arriving home; the large number of charter flights that were allowed as exceptions from Korea and other countries, for employees of large firms with factories in Vietnam - e.g. LG - who did not stop during the lockdown).
- The lockdown was largely not enforced, and while streets were much quieter than usual, there were many people outside throughout. Smaller bars and restaurants only closed for a few weeks, and of course nobody wore a mask inside them. Many informal businesses (e.g. street food) never closed.
I think Vietnam's "success" is largely down to some environmental factor (average temperature/humidity, sunlight exposure, the general "outdoor" way most people socialise) keeping the number of infections or the severity of those infections down, and I think the chances that COVID caused exactly zero deaths are almost zero.
- somewhereoutth 6y agohttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/01/testing-vietnam-contained-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/01/testin... "As in wartime, almost every sector, including aviation, healthcare and food production, has been mobilised and dedicated to containing the pandemic." They fought the virus, not each other. They won.
- _-___________-_ 6y agoAnd as in wartime, the propaganda machine is running at full capacity.
- refurb 6y agoI have family in Vietnam and from what they’ve told me, Vietnam is taking it very seriously. - folks that are high-risk and quarantined are monitored (guards posted outside residence) - if you fail to self isolate, you go to a gov’t camp - all int’l flight have been stopped; only repatriation flights are happening - for those foreigners who made it in before the flights stopped, they all went to gov't facilities - if someone tests positive, they will lock down all the people around them for 24hr, disinfect common areas and test
- _-___________-_ 6y agoI live in Vietnam. > if you fail to self isolate, you go to a gov’t camp There are a few instances of this, which of course the govt made sure were widely reported. It's very unlikely in general that they would know, though. > all int’l flight have been stopped; only repatriation flights are happening This is completely false, as you can verify on any public flight tracker website. The number of flights is greatly reduced, but they never stopped. Also, extra charter flights were put on for (at least) Samsung and LG employees to come from Korea, regularly, even in the middle of the lockdown. The "all international flights stopped" line was repeated many times in the local media, and most people here believe it, despite it being untrue. > for those foreigners who made it in before the flights stopped, they all went to gov't facilities Not true at all, I know many people who did not have to. > if someone tests positive, they will lock down all the people around them for 24hr, disinfect common areas and test They notify the people around them and tell them to self-isolate. They spray some bleach around. They do not test unless symptoms are shown.
- refurb 6y agoThanks for adding your observations! Maybe there is a bit of variation across Vietnam? I’m just sharing what my in-laws observed where they live. When I say “all international flights” stopped, I mean, you can’t just hoop on the next flight to Vietnam. Yes, there are still repatriation flights happening and flight for certain purposes, but “normal” air travel has stopped, no? So regardless, would you agree that Vietnam is going far beyond a lot of countries in trying to control the spread?
- jddj 6y agoAgreed that it certainly can feel "fluked" or random which areas are overwhelmed and which recover, but I have to disagree with the idea that Vietnam didn't take it particularly seriously. I was there in February, for around a month. As a foreigner, I was regularly receiving SMS updates about covid infections. There was a website which detailed exactly when and where people were testing positive. Hotels and guest houses, if allowed to remain open, were being closed for deep-cleaning. Buses and trains were stopped and my temperature checked, towns and islands were quarantined where someone tested positive, contact tracing appeared to be in full force and foreigners were requested to register their movements and check in daily(iirc) to a web portal. Again, this was in mid-February. Luck and climate seem to be factors, but Vietnam acted when they had a low caseload and handled outbreaks sufficiently well to keep R below 1. It wouldn't be all that surprising to me if there really were no covid deaths there.
- _-___________-_ 6y agoI didn't say they weren't taking it seriously. I made a few specific claims, none of which you've discredited or even mentioned.
- jddj 6y agoThere may have been a misunderstanding. I didn't post to score points against you or at all discredit your personal experience.
- _-___________-_ 6y agoNot sure what you mean. I was responding to this: > I have to disagree with the idea that Vietnam didn't take it particularly seriously I didn't present that idea, so I'm not sure how you can disagree with it.
- jddj 6y agoI guess there was a misunderstanding. Have a nice evening.