5 ms·

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when t

by _bxg1 6y ago

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.

bhupy 6y ago
It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to force nursing homes to accept COVID patients from hospitals. He has since walked back that strategy, and New York continues to maintain a phased lockdown strategy with a structured re-opening plan with measurable criteria[1]. Governers Inslee, Newsom, and Kate Brown have been receiving (well deserved) praise by the media for their structured approach to handling the outbreak[2]. Governor DeSantis deliberately focused Florida's COVID strategy on nursing homes, deploying the National Guard to the nursing homes, and prioritizing testing resources in LTC facilities[3]. To this date, Florida has among the lowest deaths per capita in the Union, and lower deaths per capita than most of the EU[4]. As a result of this, even despite a recent increase in cases, their death rate remains mostly flat — especially relative to the same metrics in most other States[5]. Between March 16-23 (at the outset of the outbreak), every single US state ordered a state of emergency, 11 had stay-at-home orders, 30 activated the state national guard, and 48 closed their schools[6]. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[7] As of right now, 36 out of 50 US States have a lower per capita death rate[8] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[9]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita[8] than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). It would take the most uncharitable reading of the situation to conclude that the US member states have been any more "reactionary" than typical peer nation-states. [1] https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york [2] https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/how-3-west-coast-states-led-way-bending-coronavirus-curve https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/... [3] https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ro... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [5] https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 [6] https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/1242134956463226883/photo/1 https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/12421349564632268... [7] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [8] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [9] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
- xienze 6y ago
  Wish I could upvote this more. To hear it said, you’d think half the US has died already. Another great point that people always forget is that the US, at least in situations like this, is better thought of as similar to a collection of small countries. Policies are not the same across the board. Sorta like how not every EU country is doing the same thing, and wouldn’t you know it, some EU countries are doing better than others.
- roca 6y ago
  Australia and New Zealand aren't good comparisons for testing rates because they have negligible community transmission. When no-one's infected with COVID-19, people aren't going to seek tests as much, and a higher testing rate is not necessary.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    Sure, I pulled a generous handful, so take your pick.
- roca 6y ago
  US states do not have a clearly articulated strategy. A clear strategy would be something like "apply mitigations and lockdowns as lightly as possible while keeping R below 1 so the number of active cases continually declines, until we have a vaccine or we have suppressed community transmission". AFAIK no governor has said anything that clear. A lot of state actions seem to have been driven by a strategy like that, but a lot seem more like "people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we're reopening".
  - bhupy 6y ago
    > but a lot seem more like “people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we’re reopening” This isn’t unique to the US, the entire world is playing a giant game of economic chicken with COVID, and the entire world is beginning to re-open, even without a vaccine or any sort of “plan”. Just like the EU, the US is a mixed bag. You have States like Germany with exemplary planning and strategic decision making, but you also have Italy’s and Spain’s. You have States like Washington, California, and Utah with exemplary planning, but you also have New York’s and Louisiana’s. As with any collection of generally autonomous governments (especially where the power to enforce lockdowns and issue curfews is vested), strategies can vary, outcomes can vary.
xienze 6y ago
And still the number of deaths per day has fallen by 90% and still dropping. It’s doing what viruses do, quickly burn through the elderly and infirmed and then taper off.
- lolc 6y ago
  Luckily most societies do not share your fatalist views.

by _bxg1 6y ago

bhupy 6y ago

It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to force nursing homes to accept COVID patients from hospitals. He has since walked back that strategy, and New York continues to maintain a phased lockdown strategy with a structured re-opening plan with measurable criteria[1]. Governers Inslee, Newsom, and Kate Brown have been receiving (well deserved) praise by the media for their structured approach to handling the outbreak[2]. Governor DeSantis deliberately focused Florida's COVID strategy on nursing homes, deploying the National Guard to the nursing homes, and prioritizing testing resources in LTC facilities[3]. To this date, Florida has among the lowest deaths per capita in the Union, and lower deaths per capita than most of the EU[4]. As a result of this, even despite a recent increase in cases, their death rate remains mostly flat — especially relative to the same metrics in most other States[5]. Between March 16-23 (at the outset of the outbreak), every single US state ordered a state of emergency, 11 had stay-at-home orders, 30 activated the state national guard, and 48 closed their schools[6]. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[7] As of right now, 36 out of 50 US States have a lower per capita death rate[8] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[9]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita[8] than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). It would take the most uncharitable reading of the situation to conclude that the US member states have been any more "reactionary" than typical peer nation-states. [1] https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york [2] https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/how-3-west-coast-states-led-way-bending-coronavirus-curve https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/... [3] https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ro... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [5] https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 [6] https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/1242134956463226883/photo/1 https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/12421349564632268... [7] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [8] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [9] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

xienze 6y ago
Wish I could upvote this more. To hear it said, you’d think half the US has died already. Another great point that people always forget is that the US, at least in situations like this, is better thought of as similar to a collection of small countries. Policies are not the same across the board. Sorta like how not every EU country is doing the same thing, and wouldn’t you know it, some EU countries are doing better than others.
roca 6y ago
Australia and New Zealand aren't good comparisons for testing rates because they have negligible community transmission. When no-one's infected with COVID-19, people aren't going to seek tests as much, and a higher testing rate is not necessary.
- bhupy 6y ago
  Sure, I pulled a generous handful, so take your pick.
roca 6y ago
US states do not have a clearly articulated strategy. A clear strategy would be something like "apply mitigations and lockdowns as lightly as possible while keeping R below 1 so the number of active cases continually declines, until we have a vaccine or we have suppressed community transmission". AFAIK no governor has said anything that clear. A lot of state actions seem to have been driven by a strategy like that, but a lot seem more like "people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we're reopening".
- bhupy 6y ago
  > but a lot seem more like “people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we’re reopening” This isn’t unique to the US, the entire world is playing a giant game of economic chicken with COVID, and the entire world is beginning to re-open, even without a vaccine or any sort of “plan”. Just like the EU, the US is a mixed bag. You have States like Germany with exemplary planning and strategic decision making, but you also have Italy’s and Spain’s. You have States like Washington, California, and Utah with exemplary planning, but you also have New York’s and Louisiana’s. As with any collection of generally autonomous governments (especially where the power to enforce lockdowns and issue curfews is vested), strategies can vary, outcomes can vary.

xienze 6y ago

And still the number of deaths per day has fallen by 90% and still dropping. It’s doing what viruses do, quickly burn through the elderly and infirmed and then taper off.

lolc 6y ago
Luckily most societies do not share your fatalist views.