4 ms·

For comparison, Massachusetts with 8000 deaths out of a population of 6.9M (which is #4 for deaths per-capita worldwide after NY, NJ and CT). For some reason M

by lsllc 6y ago

For comparison, Massachusetts with 8000 deaths out of a population of 6.9M (which is #4 for deaths per-capita worldwide after NY, NJ and CT). For some reason MA is now being held up as "the exception to America's coronavirus failure": https://theweek.com/articles/923075/massachusetts-exception-americas-coronavirus-failure https://theweek.com/articles/923075/massachusetts-exception-...

toss1 6y ago
Massachusetts is the exception because our re-infection rates (Rt) have been successfully driven down to well below 1.00 (~0.90 in a recent report), despite having started with a nearly out of control situation. We've gone from thousands of new cases per day to now averaging ~100. The doubling days started out at around 2.4, stayed stubbornly in the dozens for many weeks, then rise, to now averaging well over 400. The original terrifying exponential growth has clearly been halted. New levels of opening ("Level 3") are now happening this week - gyms, movies, restaurants, all w/large spacing requirements. In the few times I've gone out (making heavy use of delivery), seeing generally very good mask compliance - 75-90%, but less on one recent trip, which is worrying. I'm concerned about the opening, but confident that the plan is really data driven, and this is as far as they will go until a vaccine, and they'll quickly roll back if numbers slide. source: MA resident, track & analyze data daily.
- lsllc 6y ago
  Not sure they were "driven" down by policy per-se: According to rt.live, we started March 3rd with an Rt of 2.22 and were already in a steep Rt decline by the time Baker issued the stay-home request on March 24rd (Rt 1.22) and got below Rt 1.0 a week later on March 31st. Baker issued his mask order May 6th (Rt 0.88) and we've been bouncing around at that since although we're creeping up now from our low of 0.75 around when reopening started and been slowly ticking upwards since late May to Rt 0.98 now. A few weeks ago we had the lowest Rt in the nation, now we're only 5th lowest. Hopefully the start of Phase 3 this week won't push us up over 1, but I suspect it will. https://rt.live/us/MA https://rt.live/us/MA
  - lsllc 6y ago
    A day later, 30 more deaths and we're now 7th lowest, our Rt is up to 0.99 and 3-day hospitalization average is now going up for the first time in a while. The state is now also offering expanded free testing to anyone so it'll be interesting to see how that changes it.
    - toss1 6y ago
      Yes, the Rt declines before the lockdown are curious, but I wonder if they are statistical anomalies related to initial small numbers or some other factor. It could also be that the people were independently starting to take measures, distancing, masks, etc. I know I was, and I'm not the only one. The chart of inferred infections by date seems to show very strong correlations to the lockdown measures: * very steep rate of rise in cases until 24-March * a bit of reduced slope right at the date * sudden peak/drop-off about a week later on 01-April * steep decline, then flatter decline during lockdown * then, a week after lockdown ends / next phase, around 25-May, the declining slope flattens And the Rt starts to increase again in the last week of May So, yes, the re-opening is looking very much like it's increasing re-transmission rates. Today just hit 1.01 on that chart. Interesting times ahead. New England overall has relatively flat growth rates. Let's hope they continue measures to keep it that way!
      - toss1 6y ago
        Actually, the chart for every state shows the initial high value and steep decline of the Rt rate So, this is likely of no practical value and some kind of data artifact. Best guess is spread before testing, and testing rates ramping up as it spreads, logging new cases at rates faster than they are actually being created, and normalizing to actual Rt rates as the testing catches up
ghaff 6y ago
It's honestly hard to find a lot of fault with Massachusetts' response compared to most other places--at least within the constraints of testing availability and other constraints at a national level. And people have been pretty good at following restrictions as far as I can tell. That said, like elsewhere along the Northeast Corridor, outcomes have not been great overall especially in poorer immigrant communities. But that doesn't align nicely with a narrative that bad outcomes are a result of bad government policy or kids going to the beach or whatever. As Nate Silver has noted on multiple occasions, we'll probably come out of this maybe not understanding why results were so different in different places or, at best, understanding that the differences are due to factors that couldn't realistically have been controlled for.

by lsllc 6y ago

toss1 6y ago

Massachusetts is the exception because our re-infection rates (Rt) have been successfully driven down to well below 1.00 (~0.90 in a recent report), despite having started with a nearly out of control situation. We've gone from thousands of new cases per day to now averaging ~100. The doubling days started out at around 2.4, stayed stubbornly in the dozens for many weeks, then rise, to now averaging well over 400. The original terrifying exponential growth has clearly been halted. New levels of opening ("Level 3") are now happening this week - gyms, movies, restaurants, all w/large spacing requirements. In the few times I've gone out (making heavy use of delivery), seeing generally very good mask compliance - 75-90%, but less on one recent trip, which is worrying. I'm concerned about the opening, but confident that the plan is really data driven, and this is as far as they will go until a vaccine, and they'll quickly roll back if numbers slide. source: MA resident, track & analyze data daily.

lsllc 6y ago
Not sure they were "driven" down by policy per-se: According to rt.live, we started March 3rd with an Rt of 2.22 and were already in a steep Rt decline by the time Baker issued the stay-home request on March 24rd (Rt 1.22) and got below Rt 1.0 a week later on March 31st. Baker issued his mask order May 6th (Rt 0.88) and we've been bouncing around at that since although we're creeping up now from our low of 0.75 around when reopening started and been slowly ticking upwards since late May to Rt 0.98 now. A few weeks ago we had the lowest Rt in the nation, now we're only 5th lowest. Hopefully the start of Phase 3 this week won't push us up over 1, but I suspect it will. https://rt.live/us/MA https://rt.live/us/MA
- lsllc 6y ago
  A day later, 30 more deaths and we're now 7th lowest, our Rt is up to 0.99 and 3-day hospitalization average is now going up for the first time in a while. The state is now also offering expanded free testing to anyone so it'll be interesting to see how that changes it.
  - toss1 6y ago
    Yes, the Rt declines before the lockdown are curious, but I wonder if they are statistical anomalies related to initial small numbers or some other factor. It could also be that the people were independently starting to take measures, distancing, masks, etc. I know I was, and I'm not the only one. The chart of inferred infections by date seems to show very strong correlations to the lockdown measures: * very steep rate of rise in cases until 24-March * a bit of reduced slope right at the date * sudden peak/drop-off about a week later on 01-April * steep decline, then flatter decline during lockdown * then, a week after lockdown ends / next phase, around 25-May, the declining slope flattens And the Rt starts to increase again in the last week of May So, yes, the re-opening is looking very much like it's increasing re-transmission rates. Today just hit 1.01 on that chart. Interesting times ahead. New England overall has relatively flat growth rates. Let's hope they continue measures to keep it that way!
    - toss1 6y ago
      Actually, the chart for every state shows the initial high value and steep decline of the Rt rate So, this is likely of no practical value and some kind of data artifact. Best guess is spread before testing, and testing rates ramping up as it spreads, logging new cases at rates faster than they are actually being created, and normalizing to actual Rt rates as the testing catches up

ghaff 6y ago

It's honestly hard to find a lot of fault with Massachusetts' response compared to most other places--at least within the constraints of testing availability and other constraints at a national level. And people have been pretty good at following restrictions as far as I can tell. That said, like elsewhere along the Northeast Corridor, outcomes have not been great overall especially in poorer immigrant communities. But that doesn't align nicely with a narrative that bad outcomes are a result of bad government policy or kids going to the beach or whatever. As Nate Silver has noted on multiple occasions, we'll probably come out of this maybe not understanding why results were so different in different places or, at best, understanding that the differences are due to factors that couldn't realistically have been controlled for.