8 ms·

> I do think that that the worst strategy is to have no strategy, seemingly like the USA The USA does not have "no strategy", it just depends from State to Sta

by bhupy 6y ago

> I do think that that the worst strategy is to have no strategy, seemingly like the USA The USA does not have "no strategy", it just depends from State to State[1]. Every state has had some form of lockdown and school closure. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-ma...

triceratops 6y ago
That is the same as "no strategy". Without coordination of the lockdowns, travel monitoring, national testing and contact tracing, you're just going to have shifting hotspots of infection. This also leaves behind an embittered population whose lockdown sacrifices were for nothing.
- bhupy 6y ago
  That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's also, incidentally, how the EU works. There are open borders between member states — and while some member states "closed" their borders, this has been largely unenforceable in land crossings because there are no border patrol agents between every single land crossing between EU member states. Border enforcements have only been enforced at airports. In the US, nationwide air travel came to a near complete stand-still during the outset of the pandemic, so inter-state travel was already at the same levels you had in the EU. The US's strategy has been the same as the EU's, and it has been to let the member States define the strategy. As of right now, 36 out of 50 US states have a lower per capita death rate[1] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[2]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). This is not because the US has a nationwide testing regime, rather it's because testing systems have been administered at the State level, with varying strategies (some focusing on nursing homes, some focusing on drive-thru testing etc). [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  - aazaa 6y ago
    > That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's one thing to leave pandemic response to member countries like the EU does. Each country knows it's responsible for its own response. Money is budgeted and spent specifically for this purpose. That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. You may recall the one state (Washington) earlier this year whose brave scientists decided to test for COVID on their own. They were told in no uncertain terms from the feds to stand down or else. So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand. That's one likely outcome of this event (assuming it has a clean endpoint): states realizing they really are on their own - and acting like it.
    - bhupy 6y ago
      > That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/health agency[1]. Furthermore, the EU also has its own centralized disease agency[2]. Structurally, both the US and EU are very similar in this regard. The only key difference is that (to your point) the EU States may override the ECDC, whereas US States may not — certainly a worthwhile policy change for the US. > So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand. But this is factually incorrect, States did take steps beforehand. By March 23, every single State declared a state of emergency, and 48/50 States closed their schools. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[3]. As of right now, the US has administered more tests per capita than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). This is not because the US has a nationwide testing regime, rather it is because testing systems have been administered at the State level[4]. [1] https://www.ehdp.com/links/us-shas.htm https://www.ehdp.com/links/us-shas.htm [2] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en [3] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- irrational 6y ago
  I don't think that is true. In my state the governor shut things down quickly and completely and we haven't started opening back up yet. The result is very very very few cases of Covid-19.
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  Coordination of lockdowns makes no sense past a county or small state. Do you believe NYC and rural Nebraska should be coordinating schedules when they have vastly different situations over time?
  - bhupy 6y ago
    Not to mention that the US Federal government simply does not have the power to issue nationwide lockdowns.
    - triceratops 6y ago
      The federal government doesn't need to order anyone to do anything. Fighting a pandemic is in everyone's best interests. It just needs to ensure there's a consistent strategy that everyone is executing.
      - bhupy 6y ago
        It doesn’t need to do that at all, any more than the EU government needs to ensure there’s a consistent strategy among its member states that everyone is executing. Different strategies apply for different states, because they have different elderly populations, different density characteristics, and different health system capacities. Further, we still don’t know which approaches are the best, since we’re still learning about the disease. The fact that there are 50 separate approaches being tested affords us a wealth of data to operate on to shift strategies. As you said, fighting a pandemic is in everyone’s best interests, and states can and will change their strategies to minimize suffering. An example: Governor Cuomo employed a fairly disastrous nursing home policy, which is largely what caused New York’s staggering death rate (at this moment, the highest in the Union). To be fair to him, he didn’t know that the virus would have this effect, and upon seeing the results from other states (FL, TX) which specifically protected nursing homes, course-corrected his own State’s strategy. This is a win for everyone, in the long run.
        mixmastamyk 6y ago
_bxg1 6y ago
It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.
- bhupy 6y ago
  It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to force nursing homes to accept COVID patients from hospitals. He has since walked back that strategy, and New York continues to maintain a phased lockdown strategy with a structured re-opening plan with measurable criteria[1]. Governers Inslee, Newsom, and Kate Brown have been receiving (well deserved) praise by the media for their structured approach to handling the outbreak[2]. Governor DeSantis deliberately focused Florida's COVID strategy on nursing homes, deploying the National Guard to the nursing homes, and prioritizing testing resources in LTC facilities[3]. To this date, Florida has among the lowest deaths per capita in the Union, and lower deaths per capita than most of the EU[4]. As a result of this, even despite a recent increase in cases, their death rate remains mostly flat — especially relative to the same metrics in most other States[5]. Between March 16-23 (at the outset of the outbreak), every single US state ordered a state of emergency, 11 had stay-at-home orders, 30 activated the state national guard, and 48 closed their schools[6]. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[7] As of right now, 36 out of 50 US States have a lower per capita death rate[8] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[9]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita[8] than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). It would take the most uncharitable reading of the situation to conclude that the US member states have been any more "reactionary" than typical peer nation-states. [1] https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york [2] https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/how-3-west-coast-states-led-way-bending-coronavirus-curve https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/... [3] https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ro... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [5] https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 [6] https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/1242134956463226883/photo/1 https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/12421349564632268... [7] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [8] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [9] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

by bhupy 6y ago

triceratops 6y ago

That is the same as "no strategy". Without coordination of the lockdowns, travel monitoring, national testing and contact tracing, you're just going to have shifting hotspots of infection. This also leaves behind an embittered population whose lockdown sacrifices were for nothing.

bhupy 6y ago
That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's also, incidentally, how the EU works. There are open borders between member states — and while some member states "closed" their borders, this has been largely unenforceable in land crossings because there are no border patrol agents between every single land crossing between EU member states. Border enforcements have only been enforced at airports. In the US, nationwide air travel came to a near complete stand-still during the outset of the pandemic, so inter-state travel was already at the same levels you had in the EU. The US's strategy has been the same as the EU's, and it has been to let the member States define the strategy. As of right now, 36 out of 50 US states have a lower per capita death rate[1] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[2]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). This is not because the US has a nationwide testing regime, rather it's because testing systems have been administered at the State level, with varying strategies (some focusing on nursing homes, some focusing on drive-thru testing etc). [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
- aazaa 6y ago
  > That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's one thing to leave pandemic response to member countries like the EU does. Each country knows it's responsible for its own response. Money is budgeted and spent specifically for this purpose. That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. You may recall the one state (Washington) earlier this year whose brave scientists decided to test for COVID on their own. They were told in no uncertain terms from the feds to stand down or else. So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand. That's one likely outcome of this event (assuming it has a clean endpoint): states realizing they really are on their own - and acting like it.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    > That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/health agency[1]. Furthermore, the EU also has its own centralized disease agency[2]. Structurally, both the US and EU are very similar in this regard. The only key difference is that (to your point) the EU States may override the ECDC, whereas US States may not — certainly a worthwhile policy change for the US. > So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand. But this is factually incorrect, States did take steps beforehand. By March 23, every single State declared a state of emergency, and 48/50 States closed their schools. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[3]. As of right now, the US has administered more tests per capita than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). This is not because the US has a nationwide testing regime, rather it is because testing systems have been administered at the State level[4]. [1] https://www.ehdp.com/links/us-shas.htm https://www.ehdp.com/links/us-shas.htm [2] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en [3] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
irrational 6y ago
I don't think that is true. In my state the governor shut things down quickly and completely and we haven't started opening back up yet. The result is very very very few cases of Covid-19.
mixmastamyk 6y ago
Coordination of lockdowns makes no sense past a county or small state. Do you believe NYC and rural Nebraska should be coordinating schedules when they have vastly different situations over time?
- bhupy 6y ago
  Not to mention that the US Federal government simply does not have the power to issue nationwide lockdowns.
  - triceratops 6y ago
    The federal government doesn't need to order anyone to do anything. Fighting a pandemic is in everyone's best interests. It just needs to ensure there's a consistent strategy that everyone is executing.
    - bhupy 6y ago
      It doesn’t need to do that at all, any more than the EU government needs to ensure there’s a consistent strategy among its member states that everyone is executing. Different strategies apply for different states, because they have different elderly populations, different density characteristics, and different health system capacities. Further, we still don’t know which approaches are the best, since we’re still learning about the disease. The fact that there are 50 separate approaches being tested affords us a wealth of data to operate on to shift strategies. As you said, fighting a pandemic is in everyone’s best interests, and states can and will change their strategies to minimize suffering. An example: Governor Cuomo employed a fairly disastrous nursing home policy, which is largely what caused New York’s staggering death rate (at this moment, the highest in the Union). To be fair to him, he didn’t know that the virus would have this effect, and upon seeing the results from other states (FL, TX) which specifically protected nursing homes, course-corrected his own State’s strategy. This is a win for everyone, in the long run.
      - mixmastamyk 6y ago

_bxg1 6y ago

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.

bhupy 6y ago
It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to force nursing homes to accept COVID patients from hospitals. He has since walked back that strategy, and New York continues to maintain a phased lockdown strategy with a structured re-opening plan with measurable criteria[1]. Governers Inslee, Newsom, and Kate Brown have been receiving (well deserved) praise by the media for their structured approach to handling the outbreak[2]. Governor DeSantis deliberately focused Florida's COVID strategy on nursing homes, deploying the National Guard to the nursing homes, and prioritizing testing resources in LTC facilities[3]. To this date, Florida has among the lowest deaths per capita in the Union, and lower deaths per capita than most of the EU[4]. As a result of this, even despite a recent increase in cases, their death rate remains mostly flat — especially relative to the same metrics in most other States[5]. Between March 16-23 (at the outset of the outbreak), every single US state ordered a state of emergency, 11 had stay-at-home orders, 30 activated the state national guard, and 48 closed their schools[6]. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[7] As of right now, 36 out of 50 US States have a lower per capita death rate[8] than France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland[9]. 15 States have a lower per capita death rate than Germany and Denmark, who have seen the best COVID outcomes in the EU. The US, to date, has administered more tests per capita[8] than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). It would take the most uncharitable reading of the situation to conclude that the US member states have been any more "reactionary" than typical peer nation-states. [1] https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york https://forward.ny.gov/metrics-guide-reopening-new-york [2] https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/how-3-west-coast-states-led-way-bending-coronavirus-curve https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/... [3] https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ro... [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [5] https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1279967210224705542 [6] https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/1242134956463226883/photo/1 https://twitter.com/COVID2019action/status/12421349564632268... [7] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo/1 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo... [8] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [9] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries