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I'm not American, I'm Dutch. And there's a huge difference between WOII levels (which is what 2% deathrate in The Netherlands would be), versus an extra amount

I'm not American, I'm Dutch. And there's a huge difference between WOII levels (which is what 2% deathrate in The Netherlands would be), versus an extra amount of death people comparable to the worst flu season. In The Netherlands, the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. I hope it stays that way for everyone.

DanBC 6y ago
> the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. Do you have a link to the statistics please? I think you're comparing two different methods of counting death. I think for covid-19 you're counting people who died after testing positive, or people where covid-19 is listed as the cause on the death certificate. But for flu I think you're counting excess mortality.
- nkurz 6y ago
  Not a scientific article, but this blog post gives some numbers for Sweden: https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/ https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-199.... One big question would be why they chose April 2020 as the comparison point rather than May or June -- did the number of deaths per month in Sweden actually drop? (I haven't read the article closely, and don't have a horse in this race --- I just thought it was apropos. Feel free to tear it to shreds if appropriate.)
  - DanBC 6y ago
    I'm not going to tear it to shreds! When people say "covid is like flu" sometimes they mean "flu is a big deal, and a bad flu year kills lots of people". (I agree with that). But sometimes they mean "flu isn't so bad, it's a bit like a cold, doesn't kill so many people".
  - yxhuvud 6y ago
    Yes, the death rate has dropped and is now down to normal.
  - NoSubstitute 6y ago
    Even official numbers from Socialstyrelsen over the last 10-20 years showed that weekly excess deaths were only significant certain weeks, with other weeks even being lower than other years.
- mettamage 6y ago
  He was mentioning the same flu season I did [1]. You're right though, I think something different was counted. In one case it was covid-19 deaths vs excess mortality. A sister comment rectified it, fortunately. It took this source [2] that references the excess mortality of the Dutch worst flu season and covid-19. Then you get: > De oversterfte in week 10 tot en met 19 van de COVID-19 epidemie was 9.768 > De oversterfte tijdens de 18 weken griepepidemie werd geschat op 9.444 (I think you can gather which is which but you could use Google Translate to be 100% sure) So COVID-19 is actually higher and in 10 weeks rather than 18 weeks. And also, now that we're comparing a bit more apples to apples (The Netherlands), then we have to take into account that an "intelligent lockdown" (whatever that means) has taken place. We had less death per 1 million than the Swedish as we were on 6132 at the time of this comment with covid related deaths. So in conclusion, I made a few subtle errors that ultimately really add up. I wish I could still edit my top comment, I am happy I could already admit one error I made (that Sweden wasn't 100% roaming free), but using different units of measurement (covid related deaths vs excess mortality was another one). [1] In Dutch, unfortunately: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland [2] https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland
Svip 6y ago
The average high for the flu is 650,000 fatalities a year.[0] COVID-19 has so far caused 540,000 fatalities,[1][2] and the year is far from over. Quick napkin math would suggest at least 1 million will have died from COVID-19 at year's end, globally. That's far higher than all regular flu seasons, although nowhere near as bad as previous flu pandemics. [0] http://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf http://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- ryanwaggoner 6y ago
  And that's with crushing restrictions on normal human activities.
Pepe1vo 6y ago
This is empirically false. It's at least 25% worse than the 2018 flu season, which was the worst flu season in decades, and that's with unprecedented mitigation measures in place. https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  The peak in the graph is higher but the area under the graph, the total number of fatalities, is almost the same because the flu season lasted longer. > De oversterfte in week 10 tot en met 19 van de COVID-19 epidemie was 9.768 > De oversterfte tijdens de 18 weken griepepidemie werd geschat op 9.444 Anyway definitely not 25% worse.

DanBC 6y ago

> the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. Do you have a link to the statistics please? I think you're comparing two different methods of counting death. I think for covid-19 you're counting people who died after testing positive, or people where covid-19 is listed as the cause on the death certificate. But for flu I think you're counting excess mortality.

nkurz 6y ago
Not a scientific article, but this blog post gives some numbers for Sweden: https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/ https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-199.... One big question would be why they chose April 2020 as the comparison point rather than May or June -- did the number of deaths per month in Sweden actually drop? (I haven't read the article closely, and don't have a horse in this race --- I just thought it was apropos. Feel free to tear it to shreds if appropriate.)
- DanBC 6y ago
  I'm not going to tear it to shreds! When people say "covid is like flu" sometimes they mean "flu is a big deal, and a bad flu year kills lots of people". (I agree with that). But sometimes they mean "flu isn't so bad, it's a bit like a cold, doesn't kill so many people".
- yxhuvud 6y ago
  Yes, the death rate has dropped and is now down to normal.
- NoSubstitute 6y ago
  Even official numbers from Socialstyrelsen over the last 10-20 years showed that weekly excess deaths were only significant certain weeks, with other weeks even being lower than other years.
mettamage 6y ago
He was mentioning the same flu season I did [1]. You're right though, I think something different was counted. In one case it was covid-19 deaths vs excess mortality. A sister comment rectified it, fortunately. It took this source [2] that references the excess mortality of the Dutch worst flu season and covid-19. Then you get: > De oversterfte in week 10 tot en met 19 van de COVID-19 epidemie was 9.768 > De oversterfte tijdens de 18 weken griepepidemie werd geschat op 9.444 (I think you can gather which is which but you could use Google Translate to be 100% sure) So COVID-19 is actually higher and in 10 weeks rather than 18 weeks. And also, now that we're comparing a bit more apples to apples (The Netherlands), then we have to take into account that an "intelligent lockdown" (whatever that means) has taken place. We had less death per 1 million than the Swedish as we were on 6132 at the time of this comment with covid related deaths. So in conclusion, I made a few subtle errors that ultimately really add up. I wish I could still edit my top comment, I am happy I could already admit one error I made (that Sweden wasn't 100% roaming free), but using different units of measurement (covid related deaths vs excess mortality was another one). [1] In Dutch, unfortunately: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland [2] https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Svip 6y ago

The average high for the flu is 650,000 fatalities a year.[0] COVID-19 has so far caused 540,000 fatalities,[1][2] and the year is far from over. Quick napkin math would suggest at least 1 million will have died from COVID-19 at year's end, globally. That's far higher than all regular flu seasons, although nowhere near as bad as previous flu pandemics. [0] http://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf http://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

ryanwaggoner 6y ago
And that's with crushing restrictions on normal human activities.

Pepe1vo 6y ago

This is empirically false. It's at least 25% worse than the 2018 flu season, which was the worst flu season in decades, and that's with unprecedented mitigation measures in place. https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

tinus_hn 6y ago
The peak in the graph is higher but the area under the graph, the total number of fatalities, is almost the same because the flu season lasted longer. > De oversterfte in week 10 tot en met 19 van de COVID-19 epidemie was 9.768 > De oversterfte tijdens de 18 weken griepepidemie werd geschat op 9.444 Anyway definitely not 25% worse.