4 ms·

This pandemic will be alot worse in economic terms than predicted. So far the only bright spot will be deaths seem to have really dropped, but death is a low ba

This pandemic will be alot worse in economic terms than predicted. So far the only bright spot will be deaths seem to have really dropped, but death is a low bar compared to having severe chronic symptoms after infection. Alot of people have really shut down spending(my family reduced it by 50%) Expect international travel/tourism to be completely shutdown as well as a majority of restaurants and bars until prb early 2021. Sports and concerts also. That is a considerable chunk of the economy. Will a majority of these restaurants even exist next year? A few assumptions that have been proven wrong with covid-19: 1. The virus will subside in the summer like the flu does. Based on cases in the US and other areas (sans Europe) skyrocketing right now this is absolutely not true, forget a 2nd wave we have a growing mountain of a 1st wave hitting the US/Americas now. 2. Children are not really affected by covid. Israel had to shut its schools down after cases there were jumping, in addition kawasaki disease seems to be prevalent in a higher percentage of infected children than normally seen. 3. Antibodies will offer protection against covid-19 after being infected. This too has been disproved although the jury is not out yet. Studies have seen neutralizing antibodies stay in a persons system for about 2-3 months. There are other ways the body knows how to fight an infection so this is not definitive yet.[3] [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/07/coronavirus-live-updates-us/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/07/coronavirus... [2] - https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/03/868507524/israel-orders-schools-to-close-when-covid-19-cases-are-discovered https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... [3] - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-antibodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-...

seppel 6y ago
> as well as a majority of restaurants and bars until prb early 2021. The majority of bars and restaurants are back open in Germany.
- AnssiH 6y ago
  Yeah, they are open in Finland as well (https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/information-on-coronavirus/current-restrictions https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/information-on-coronavirus/curr...). Though I think the parent was talking about worldwide numbers which I have no idea about.
- pjmlp 6y ago
  They are, but many of them have people only seated outside, and in places where it was almost impossible to get a table, nowadays it is relatively easy to get one. Also plenty of them have decided to just stay closed as the measures to put in place were too much for their usual business costs.
anoncake 6y ago
If being infected does not make you immune, neither will a vaccine and we might as well give up and accept the inevitable now.
- jlokier 6y ago
  This is not correct, but it would mean we'd need a novel type of vaccine, one that works differently than merely stimulating the body's immune response in the regular way.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    Of course it's correct. If the immune system can't learn immunity from the full virus itself, virus fragments or a weakened relative won't suffice either. As for developing a novel type of vaccine? Developing any vaccine within an acceptable timeframe would be a minor miracle. To expect a breakthrough like that is plain delusional.
    - jlokier 6y ago
      > If the immune system can't learn immunity from the full virus itself, virus fragments or a weakened relative won't suffice either. There are currently some 8-10 different kinds of vaccine for COVID-19 in development right now, and only two of those are based on virus fragments or weakened relatives. It possible to induce temporary immunity, which would be adequate as a vaccine during pandemic, although annoying because we'd have to keep taking boosters. The history of this goes back >100 years, it is hardly "breakthrough" level. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_induction_of_immunity#Temporarily_induced_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_induction_of_immuni... Some R&D is towards gene-editing or other means of RNA/DNA transcription to cause the body to produce passive immunity antibodies continuously, rather than one-off infusion. That would be breakthrough level, but it's not so implausible that "we might as well give up and accept the inevitable now" and let millions die and millions more suffer the disabilities. If these fail, regular antibody infusions or other therepeutics may be required. Not a vaccine, but similar in practical effect while being more expensive. We might as well give up if the US insurance system is in charge of that.

seppel 6y ago

> as well as a majority of restaurants and bars until prb early 2021. The majority of bars and restaurants are back open in Germany.

AnssiH 6y ago
Yeah, they are open in Finland as well (https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/information-on-coronavirus/current-restrictions https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/information-on-coronavirus/curr...). Though I think the parent was talking about worldwide numbers which I have no idea about.
pjmlp 6y ago
They are, but many of them have people only seated outside, and in places where it was almost impossible to get a table, nowadays it is relatively easy to get one. Also plenty of them have decided to just stay closed as the measures to put in place were too much for their usual business costs.

anoncake 6y ago

If being infected does not make you immune, neither will a vaccine and we might as well give up and accept the inevitable now.

jlokier 6y ago
This is not correct, but it would mean we'd need a novel type of vaccine, one that works differently than merely stimulating the body's immune response in the regular way.
- anoncake 6y ago
  Of course it's correct. If the immune system can't learn immunity from the full virus itself, virus fragments or a weakened relative won't suffice either. As for developing a novel type of vaccine? Developing any vaccine within an acceptable timeframe would be a minor miracle. To expect a breakthrough like that is plain delusional.
  - jlokier 6y ago
    > If the immune system can't learn immunity from the full virus itself, virus fragments or a weakened relative won't suffice either. There are currently some 8-10 different kinds of vaccine for COVID-19 in development right now, and only two of those are based on virus fragments or weakened relatives. It possible to induce temporary immunity, which would be adequate as a vaccine during pandemic, although annoying because we'd have to keep taking boosters. The history of this goes back >100 years, it is hardly "breakthrough" level. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_induction_of_immunity#Temporarily_induced_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_induction_of_immuni... Some R&D is towards gene-editing or other means of RNA/DNA transcription to cause the body to produce passive immunity antibodies continuously, rather than one-off infusion. That would be breakthrough level, but it's not so implausible that "we might as well give up and accept the inevitable now" and let millions die and millions more suffer the disabilities. If these fail, regular antibody infusions or other therepeutics may be required. Not a vaccine, but similar in practical effect while being more expensive. We might as well give up if the US insurance system is in charge of that.