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This is all based on the assumption that the current medical tech will stay as it is. But in reality what we are seeing is much faster tests (we have already go

This is all based on the assumption that the current medical tech will stay as it is. But in reality what we are seeing is much faster tests (we have already gone done from few days to get back results to couple of hours now) and much better medical care once you are infected. Which means it will become a lot easier to separate the infected from the rest of the population, rendering the healthy population to work and move freely like they used to. You can do a quick test before boarding an international flight and permitted to enter the country only if you're healthy. Contact tracing apps can easily show Green-Red passes to prove whether you can enter any restaurant, shop, hospital, etc.

shard 6y ago
That's a good point. As testing technology advances, many of these will be mitigated. Although until the tests get to the point where they can give results within minutes, like the flu tests have progressed to, it will not be a complete mitigation. Another issue is cost, as once testing becomes common place, I would expect the fees to be passed onto the consumer. Also, people may not want to put up with constant testing, e.g. once every 2 weeks, unless it's a condition for employment, which might be the case for any job which requires high contact with the population.
bradknowles 6y ago
Sadly, most of the tests with fast results are highly inaccurate. Their false positive rate is way, way too high. You’d get way too many people who are tagged as being positive and kept from traveling (or whatever), which would create another crisis of its own. Contact tracing only works for you if every person you’ve been in contact with is willing to participate. And that assumes you actually know all of the people you’ve spent enough time around to be considered to have contacted them.
listenallyall 6y ago
>> You can do a quick test before boarding an international flight Just curious, how do anticipate this working from a business point of view? If boarding is denied due to a positive test, does the passenger get a refund? If that's the case, won't airlines overbook significantly more than they do today, which in turn will probably increase chaos? On the other hand, if tickets are non-refundable, who would gamble on purchasing an expensive ticket and then be subject to losing it due to a semi-inaccurate test?

shard 6y ago

That's a good point. As testing technology advances, many of these will be mitigated. Although until the tests get to the point where they can give results within minutes, like the flu tests have progressed to, it will not be a complete mitigation. Another issue is cost, as once testing becomes common place, I would expect the fees to be passed onto the consumer. Also, people may not want to put up with constant testing, e.g. once every 2 weeks, unless it's a condition for employment, which might be the case for any job which requires high contact with the population.

bradknowles 6y ago

Sadly, most of the tests with fast results are highly inaccurate. Their false positive rate is way, way too high. You’d get way too many people who are tagged as being positive and kept from traveling (or whatever), which would create another crisis of its own. Contact tracing only works for you if every person you’ve been in contact with is willing to participate. And that assumes you actually know all of the people you’ve spent enough time around to be considered to have contacted them.

listenallyall 6y ago

>> You can do a quick test before boarding an international flight Just curious, how do anticipate this working from a business point of view? If boarding is denied due to a positive test, does the passenger get a refund? If that's the case, won't airlines overbook significantly more than they do today, which in turn will probably increase chaos? On the other hand, if tickets are non-refundable, who would gamble on purchasing an expensive ticket and then be subject to losing it due to a semi-inaccurate test?