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The question is whether Buffett got a low enough price that his risk is low. Natural gas demand may be on a long term downward path, but it’s not going away en

The question is whether Buffett got a low enough price that his risk is low. Natural gas demand may be on a long term downward path, but it’s not going away entirely any time in the next 30 years. At the right price I’d happily own natural gas for the next decade, the question is did Buffett get that price? He’s been a victim of his own success for the last couple decades, his growth in portfolio size has removed the least efficiently priced market opportunities from his consideration. Evidence is he’s not able to find the discount to intrinsic value that he used to demand in the biggest market caps, and is being forced to reduce his margin of safety on deals. The fact that this is the first significant deal he’s been able to swing in the 4 months since the market crashed supports this.

ISL 6y ago
As a Berkshire shareholder, I'm happy that Buffett didn't pounce in the crisis. Prices were only just becoming reasonable when the Fed stepped in and upended the calculus of the value investor. As Buffett likes to say, there are no called strikes in investing. “I call investing the greatest business in the world,” he says, “because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.”
- valuearb 6y ago
  I have over half my net worth in BRK, but I’m also a realist. Every year Berkshires asset value grows and every year it makes Buffett’s job harder. He’s a master of resisting bias and unwanted psychological influence, but he has to be thinking of expanding his strike zone. I’m hoping for massive stock repurchases to make things easier for him.

ISL 6y ago

As a Berkshire shareholder, I'm happy that Buffett didn't pounce in the crisis. Prices were only just becoming reasonable when the Fed stepped in and upended the calculus of the value investor. As Buffett likes to say, there are no called strikes in investing. “I call investing the greatest business in the world,” he says, “because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.”

valuearb 6y ago
I have over half my net worth in BRK, but I’m also a realist. Every year Berkshires asset value grows and every year it makes Buffett’s job harder. He’s a master of resisting bias and unwanted psychological influence, but he has to be thinking of expanding his strike zone. I’m hoping for massive stock repurchases to make things easier for him.