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I dunno. I think there's a good argument that fracked gas will become more valuable as intermittency of the grid rises. Oftentimes in energy transitions, extern

I dunno. I think there's a good argument that fracked gas will become more valuable as intermittency of the grid rises. Oftentimes in energy transitions, externalities rise with scale. As the scale of wind and solar and batteries rise, they may hit roadblocks (NIMBY, transmission lines, chemical fires, chemical disposal environmental concerns, energy return on investment issues, etc). There are plenty of people who say that fracked natural gas value will go up and up. Rocky Mountain Institute is kind of fringe in their beliefs on this topic. Ken Hartwick at OPG has more nuclear and hydro than almost anyone, so I'm not surprised they are anti-gas.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Tesla (Musk, specifically) has said the demand for their batteries for utility scale storage is tremendous. I believe that as long they keep spinning up Gigafactories (and everyone else is chasing them), batteries (along with cheap, overbuilt renewables that we curtail and transmission investments) will negate the need for gas in the next decade. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in an hour to power humanity for a year. We just need to continue to scale up the capturing of that energy and moving it around efficiently. https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-90-percent-clean-electricity-by-2035-dependably-and-without-increasing-consumer-bills https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-... > The target year of 2035 allows sufficient time for most coal and gas plants to recover their fixed costs, thereby avoiding risk of stranded costs for consumers and investors, if the right policies are in place. Wind, solar, and battery storage can provide the bulk of the 90 percent clean electricity. The report finds that new fossil fuel generators are not needed. Existing gas plants, used infrequently and combined with storage, hydropower, and nuclear power, are sufficient to meet demand during periods of extraordinarily low renewable energy generation or exceptionally high electricity demand. Power generation from natural gas plants would drop by 70 percent in 2035 compared to 2019.
- acidburnNSA 6y ago
  The scale of chemical batteries needed to handle a deeply decarbonized grid is almost unfathomable. It is certainly physically possible (i.e. not forbidden by the laws of physics), but to postulate that it will go off without significant hitches related to environmental concerns, resource issues, transmission permitting issues, land-use issues, chemical disposal/recycling issues, energy return on investment shortages, etc. seems really optimistic to me. I get that this is what people want to happen but I just think it's vastly harder than most people think. > Enough sunlight falls on Earth in an hour to power humanity for a year. There's enough recoverable fission fuel on Earth to power humanity for a billion years. Energy resources is not the issue. Accessing it economically and in politically-compatible ways is.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

Tesla (Musk, specifically) has said the demand for their batteries for utility scale storage is tremendous. I believe that as long they keep spinning up Gigafactories (and everyone else is chasing them), batteries (along with cheap, overbuilt renewables that we curtail and transmission investments) will negate the need for gas in the next decade. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in an hour to power humanity for a year. We just need to continue to scale up the capturing of that energy and moving it around efficiently. https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-90-percent-clean-electricity-by-2035-dependably-and-without-increasing-consumer-bills https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-... > The target year of 2035 allows sufficient time for most coal and gas plants to recover their fixed costs, thereby avoiding risk of stranded costs for consumers and investors, if the right policies are in place. Wind, solar, and battery storage can provide the bulk of the 90 percent clean electricity. The report finds that new fossil fuel generators are not needed. Existing gas plants, used infrequently and combined with storage, hydropower, and nuclear power, are sufficient to meet demand during periods of extraordinarily low renewable energy generation or exceptionally high electricity demand. Power generation from natural gas plants would drop by 70 percent in 2035 compared to 2019.

acidburnNSA 6y ago
The scale of chemical batteries needed to handle a deeply decarbonized grid is almost unfathomable. It is certainly physically possible (i.e. not forbidden by the laws of physics), but to postulate that it will go off without significant hitches related to environmental concerns, resource issues, transmission permitting issues, land-use issues, chemical disposal/recycling issues, energy return on investment shortages, etc. seems really optimistic to me. I get that this is what people want to happen but I just think it's vastly harder than most people think. > Enough sunlight falls on Earth in an hour to power humanity for a year. There's enough recoverable fission fuel on Earth to power humanity for a billion years. Energy resources is not the issue. Accessing it economically and in politically-compatible ways is.