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> What does "independent of social conditioning" mean here? So we know, for example, that if you train a model to predict "criminality" based on face here in t
by joshuamorton 6y ago
> What does "independent of social conditioning" mean here?
So we know, for example, that if you train a model to predict "criminality" based on face here in the US, it will find that race is a strong predictor of criminality.
The first problem with this specific example is that the data is biased: certain communities are overpoliced. We know, for example, that black and white people use marijuana at around the same rate, but that black people are more likely to be arrested for use. So they'll be more likely to be represented in a dataset of "criminals" even if they aren't actually more criminal. So that's one social factor. But let's pretend that we can construct a socially untainted dataset that represents the true underlying crime rate, we correlate it with face images, and the racial disparity still exists. I want to reiterate that we're well off into the world of fantasy here, but for demonstration purposes.
There are generally 3 conclusions you can draw from a correlation like this: A directly causes B, B directly causes A, or something else more complex is at play. It's unlikely for facial structure changes to directly cause criminality, and unless you're Pinocchio, criminal behavior isn't going to directly cause changes in your face.
So what more complex thing is at play? Well one answer is genes. It could be that the genes that make someone darker also make them more naturally predisposed to violence. That is, some factor C directly causes both A and B. Or it could be even more complex, for example that socially, people who exhibit black skin are more likely to be placed in conditions that breed criminal behavior[0]. Since economic and social status are heritable, and so is skin color, this seems reasonable to conclude, and there's lots of other evidence that this is the case.
But if that's the case, then looking at a picture of a face doesn't actually have predictive power. At best it just recognizes that your average black person is likely to have been raised in a situation where they were more likely to commit a crime. It doesn't have any predictive power about a black person who wasn't raised in those conditions.
So by independent of social condition, what I mean is that such a model isn't useful unless you ascribe to the belief that the genes that cause facial structures are correlated with the genes that cause criminal behavior (which presupposes that those genes exist).
Otherwise you aren't actually looking at even a direct correlation and in fact it's very likely that if you divide your subpopulation up in smart ways, you'll find that there are groups against which you are unfairly biased.
Just because the social signifiers in the study we're looking at aren't as obvious to you or I as skin tone doesn't mean they aren't there, and again that presumes the data is good, which we know it isn't.
> Can you give some examples of social attributes that arise independent of social conditioning?
I don't know that I fully explained this above, so let's create another fantasy world to explain this more concretely. Let's agree that murder is bad. This is solely a social agreement, but we decide on it based on ethical beliefs.
Imagine that in this fantasy world there are genes that cause one to occasionally enter a bloodlust that forces one to go on a relatively uncontrollable killing rampage. Or for a more direct fantasy example, turn into a werewolf that then goes into a relatively uncontrollable killing rampage. Or be an Orc which is "naturally" evil (this is actually a relatively common fantasy trope, huh).
This genetic marker would imply a genetic predisposition to criminal behavior, despite any social conditioning. Compare this to a relatively normal human child who is trained from a young age that they are "no one", a part of a greater movement that requires assassinating the wrong people, and that this assassination is sometimes necessary for the greater good.
Both are more likely than your average person to commit a crime, but one was conditioned to this socially while one was genetically predisposed. If this cult holds onto family lines, there will be similarities between cult members, but people who escape the cult or who were never a part of it might be unjustly thought to be criminal, solely because they resembled the cult.
To jump back to the original statement, this means that if you set up a confusion matrix that includes "family of cult members" as a category, your model will perform badly and discriminate negatively agains them. You can see why this might cause huge issues like, for example, causing the justice system to chase or harass people who are related to criminals.
Hopefully that explains. It's essentially a correlation vs. causation issue.
[0]: I should note here that this is true whether you ascribe to the belief that "black culture" encourages/celebrates criminality, or the belief that "white supremacist and social structures" push black people into situations where they can't avoid crime.
- JoshuaDavid 6y agoI understand, and generally agree with, the idea that teasing apart genetic and social causes of behavior is difficult and unlikely to yield useful results, and especially unlikely to yield useful results when the people attempting to do it don't know what they're doing and don't have any incentives for getting it right. I think my true objection is to the idea that we can't make useful inferences, even in principle, based on appearance. I suppose now would be a good time to check whether you actually hold that opinion: I'm assuming yes based on the following exchange that you do. >> There was a previous [study] that was reporting some degree of success in determining whether someone was homosexual via ML. > Yes, which was also phrenological in nature. > ... > The point is that neither this study nor the homosexuality study have a relatively consistent relationship to observable reality. Your priors on us being able to predict, independent of social conditioning, some arbitrary social attribute based on someone's face should be very, very low. If I've learned one thing from looking into machine learning and such over the past few years, it's that the computer is not looking at what you think it's looking at. Yes, it's _possible_ that the computer has learned which varieties of facial bone structure correlate with homosexuality. I find it equally plausible that the computer determined that there was a difference in personal grooming habits or facial expressions between groups. Regardless of what the differences were, though, I think it's a mistake to say that you shouldn't expect to be _able_ to predict many social attributes based on their face. If you're just saying that we can't determine the underlying causes of social attributes based on machine learning, I agree, but I'm not sure that's really a useful statement. What you said could also plausibly be interpreted as "trying to predict real-world outcomes based on machine learning will result in bad outcomes", I would agree with that interpretation (there is some question of "yes it will make mistakes, but it might still be better than the current system," but much like with self-driving cars vs human drivers, I don't think we're particularly near that point yet). Still, the comparison of that study to phrenology, and your comments above, suggest you were trying to make a stronger statement, and I'm still not sure what that stronger statement is or even if there is one.
- joshuamorton 6y ago> I find it equally plausible that the computer determined that there was a difference in personal grooming habits or facial expressions between groups. Right, so then the question is if this is valuable. Consider three people: a closeted, married-to-a-woman, gay man who has hidden his sexuality. An openly gay man who looks "stereotypically gay" (this statement should start triggering warning bells, btw), and a well groomed heterosexual man who might be described as "stereotypically-gay looking". Does your model identify men 2 and 3, the stereotypically "gay"-looking men? If so you've just built a model that detects cultural signifiers for homosexuality, which, congrats I guess. This isn't a useful tool, is it? It is a model that encodes stereotypes. But we know the stereotypes already, because we use them as intentional cultural signals. So nothing of value was added, and the model may serve to perpetuate those stereotypes in the future if people wish to change them. Does your model identify men 1 and 2? Well now you've built something interesting, it's found a deeper relationship than just overt social signifiers, perhaps it's noticing some minute bone structure thing. Is it ethical? Hell no. In essence the stronger statement is that you are either simply encoding cultural biases into a model, which will serve to perpetuate those biases (and is therefore harmful), or you are building something terrifying and dystopian and harmful.