I’m not sure why a child-comment got killed: >>> Not true. Deaths only lag cases by 5-10 days. For example, in Italy daily new cases peaked on March 21st and d

I’m not sure why a child-comment got killed: >>> Not true. Deaths only lag cases by 5-10 days. For example, in Italy daily new cases peaked on March 21st and daily deaths peaked on March 27th. This is correct. People are expecting a step function of deaths exactly 4 weeks from the peak of cases? This is not statistical. Peak of deaths lag peak of cases closer to 1-5 days. If case growth is a matter of true rise of infections we would see modest increase of deaths about 2-3 weeks ago (cases started growing 4 weeks ago). We’ve only seen deaths drop on a exponential decay trend.