3 ms·
> Hospitalizations and deaths are the bad numbers, not number of positives. Sort of, but the fact that "deaths are lower" is likely a cohort problem. Let's sa
by ericb 6y ago
> Hospitalizations and deaths are the bad numbers, not number of positives.
Sort of, but the fact that "deaths are lower" is likely a cohort problem.
Let's say I am looking at the bread in my cupboard and trying to figure out what percent goes moldy. I've got one moldy loaf, and I buy 9 fresh new ones. Boom, current moldy-rate is 10% what a relief, looks like mold is less of a problem than I thought--only 10% of bread goes moldy! Looks like the previous estimates of mold-rate were misleading.
If a vaccine is forthcoming, it is not at all inevitable that we will all be exposed to it.
- eanzenberg 6y agoI don’t understand what “deaths are lower is a cohort problem.” What cohort? We’ve known for months that - corona is not dangerous for people under 85 except with pre-existing conditions - corona is widespread, 10-20x higher than reported cases - infection-fatality-rate ~0.5% It’s harder to fudge death numbers compared to case numbers.
- ericb 6y agoThat's not the cohort I'm talking about--I'm not talking about age based cohorts. The cohort I'm talking about is the number of days since a positive test result. When you have many new cases (loaves of fresh bread) and you use simple math, bread/moldy you get the wrong idea about death rate. Click-baity articles, and those with motivated reasoning for "it's just a flu" get breathlessly excited about this as if it were some sort of useful data. See ops assertion that the level of crisis "is independent of the number of people who test positive" for an example of what I mean. People testing positive is a leading indicator for the size of the crisis.
- eanzenberg 6y agoThe beginning of the increase in positive cases happened 4 weeks ago. We should have already seen leading indicators of deaths.
- roywiggins 6y agoCOVID hospitalizations in Texas Medical Center are at 350 and rising. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/ https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-... In NYC, there were 358 hospitalizations and rising on 3/17, and 8 deaths. On 3/31, there were 383 daily deaths and rising. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page Deaths in Texas have been trending upwards since June. https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/?field=newDeaths&state=Texas&time=90dQQ https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/?field=newDeaths&state=Texa... Of course, there's no guarantee that the course of the epidemic in Texas will look like New York City's. But a sharp rise in hospitalizations does seem to presage a lot of deaths.