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> yesterday the US saw the most cases in a day since this started. More positive tested cases. They also tested more people yesterday alone than they did in a

by vxNsr 6y ago

> yesterday the US saw the most cases in a day since this started. More positive tested cases. They also tested more people yesterday alone than they did in any given week in April(the previous spike) while seeing a similar number of cases. The truth that no one wanted to talk about 2 months ago is that we can't reopen fully until we get a vaccine or natural herd immunity. a vaccine is likely still 6-10 months off from mass production, so if we wanna open up normally in anyway we need to go for natural herd immunity. Or we can just stay 50% open, that works for countries where people respect the government (like most of the EU) but here in the US everyone thinks they know better, so there's no way to to enforce something like that.

efdee 6y ago
It hasn't been shown yet that achieving natural herd immunity is even an option. Even in countries where they have been very lax on measures there hasn't been enough build-up for HI and it also seems that the antibodies go away quite quickly.
- ggreer 6y ago
  Herd immunity would require that over half of the population get the disease.[1] (Probably closer to 70% based on the virus's R0.) With an IFR of 0.5%, that would mean around 0.25-0.35% of the population has to die before we get herd immunity. No country has come close to that many deaths yet, so we shouldn't expect any of them to have herd immunity. 1. See figure 2 in this paper for a graph of the relationship between R0 and herd immunity thresholds: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/52/7/911/847338/cir007.pdf https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/52/7/911/847338/cir...
  - ShroudedNight 6y ago
    > Herd immunity would require that over half of the population get the disease. Doesn't this also assume that those people remain inoculated to further viral infections after being infected the first time? From my limited understanding, that is not a given for SARS-CoV-2.
    - ggreer 6y ago
      Correct. This is an optimistic scenario for herd immunity. It assumes low mortality (probably true), no permanent damage to those who survive (unclear, but probably untrue), and immunity lasting a couple years (long enough to remain immune until a vaccine is available).
briandear 6y ago
> a vaccine is likely still 6-10 months off from mass production What vaccine?
- vxNsr 6y ago
  any vaccine.

by vxNsr 6y ago

efdee 6y ago

It hasn't been shown yet that achieving natural herd immunity is even an option. Even in countries where they have been very lax on measures there hasn't been enough build-up for HI and it also seems that the antibodies go away quite quickly.

ggreer 6y ago
Herd immunity would require that over half of the population get the disease.[1] (Probably closer to 70% based on the virus's R0.) With an IFR of 0.5%, that would mean around 0.25-0.35% of the population has to die before we get herd immunity. No country has come close to that many deaths yet, so we shouldn't expect any of them to have herd immunity. 1. See figure 2 in this paper for a graph of the relationship between R0 and herd immunity thresholds: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/52/7/911/847338/cir007.pdf https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/52/7/911/847338/cir...
- ShroudedNight 6y ago
  > Herd immunity would require that over half of the population get the disease. Doesn't this also assume that those people remain inoculated to further viral infections after being infected the first time? From my limited understanding, that is not a given for SARS-CoV-2.
  - ggreer 6y ago
    Correct. This is an optimistic scenario for herd immunity. It assumes low mortality (probably true), no permanent damage to those who survive (unclear, but probably untrue), and immunity lasting a couple years (long enough to remain immune until a vaccine is available).

briandear 6y ago

> a vaccine is likely still 6-10 months off from mass production What vaccine?

vxNsr 6y ago
any vaccine.