3 ms·
The argument is not quite well constructed. Let me try to improve on it a little: 1. The program is dirt cheap as far as military expenditures go: it will cost
by credit_guy 6y ago
The argument is not quite well constructed. Let me try to improve on it a little:
1. The program is dirt cheap as far as military expenditures go: it will cost about $86 BN for a lifecycle of 50 years, which comes to less than $2 BN per year [1]. For comparison only maintaining the nuclear stockpile safe and ready costs about $4 BN per year [2]. Another comparison is the cost of the French submarine launched missile M5.1: €3-4 BN for 10 years [3], which will cover only between 16 and 64 missiles (1 to 4 submarines, 16 each), versus 450 for the American ICBM project.
2. While it is true that currently all the nuclear deterrence can be performed by the nuclear submarines, it's difficult to be 100% sure there won't be some technological breakthrough during the next 50 years to make them vulnerable. The Columbia class boomers will cost $110BN [4], and that's without the missiles they'll carry. Currently those missiles are Trident II, and their latest version is supposed to be good until 2042, after which there needs to be a replacement that will come at a cost too. So one can think of the $86 BN price tag for the ICBMs as a somewhat inexpensive insurance policy for the SLBMs.
[3] The main role of the ICMBs is to be a magnet for the enemy's missiles. They are all positioned in deserted areas. Whoever intends to perform a decapitation strike will need to take all of them down. As explained in the article, one would need to spend about 1000 nukes for that. 1000 nukes that don't go towards dense urban areas. Compare this with the SLBMs: if you can synchronize a torpedo attack against all of them, you only need to sink at most 14 subs, and you don't even need nukes for that.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Based_Strategic_Deterrent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Based_Strategic_Deterre...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Based_Strategic_Deterrent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Based_Strategic_Deterre...
[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_(missile) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_(missile)
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine