4 ms·
> There should be no place for dogma like that in science To do science (or even do any conclusion) one needs verifiable facts. It's facts that I miss here. Th
by acqq 6y ago
> There should be no place for dogma like that in science
To do science (or even do any conclusion) one needs verifiable facts. It's facts that I miss here. That you claim that somehow you “know” something that doesn’t match any other observation, without providing any numbers or data at all, except hearsay, doesn’t bring anything to anybody. My only conclusion is that your words, unsupported by anything at all, after seeing different behavior across the world for months just can't be trusted. What’s the difference between your claims and any claim appearing on 4chan?
If you would publish your data where it can be verified that it shows something that is completely opposite of what's observed in the rest of the world... that would be something that I would surely praise. And the rest of the world probably too. Imagine that... something that gives a new information different to the experience of the rest of the world, and it is actually true. I just don't see that in your messages.
The dynamics of epidemics are known: Rt > 1 produces exponential growth. But the speed of growth is dependent on the value, and every exponential function has the initial part that "still doesn't look bad." Rt = 1 produces linear growth. Rt < 1 results in the decay of the number of cases. You somehow claim that you see something different than that, even if the simplest explanation is that your hearsay story was based either on Rt > 1 but on the small number of starting cases or on Rt practically being around 1 where the number of new cases is never hard for the health system, or it can be that during the period described Rt oscillated around 1, again not stressing the health system. And all that is dependent on behavior of millions of people, who can in their environments, which could be relatively isolated from the rest, have their own initial conditions and their own Rt values.
But we just don't know what happened there -- we have no useful data from you.