4 ms·

Taking a look at excess mortality: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid (scroll down to the Eco

Taking a look at excess mortality: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid (scroll down to the Economist graphs) It would appear that the worst occurred in the April timeframe (Europe, New York), and that we've mostly reached a point of no excess mortality at this point. However, if another wave were to come through, the graphs are pretty sobering. For 65+, excess deaths peaked at 35k/week extra For 45-64, excess deaths peaked at 2.5k/week extra For 15-44, excess deaths peaked at .8k/week extra So, most students returning is a negligible risk, but for some professors, it could be daunting, if there were to be another wave.

hef19898 6y ago
You mean another one than the one currently happening in South America, India and the US? Also, it is not just deaths. The less at risk groups infect others, that can be more at risk.
- tomohawk 6y ago
  It's unfortunate that the excess mortality is not a metric that is rigorously collected at this time. As a result, it lags quite a bit. We'll know in a week or so how June looked. You're right that it is not just deaths, but morbidity. Someone who gets on a vent due to covid may never regain the life they had previously. However, we've learned a bit since April. Wearing masks works with social distancing, but requires administrative enforcement. Sweden has kept their schools open during this time (through high school) and offers an interesting point of comparison. It hasn't appeared to cause any problems for them. The main problems they've had are in the immigrant communities (220% higher rates of covid) and in elder care facilities.
  - vkou 6y ago
    > It hasn't appeared to cause any problems for them. By which you mean, it is neck-and-neck with the United States and Brazil in daily cases per capita, and is soundly leading both countries in deaths per capita? Their strategy of 'isolate the vulnerable population and do little else' worked great, except for the part where it hasn't worked at all because... The vulnerable population is getting sick and dying.
    - tomohawk 6y ago
      If you look at the linked data, you'll see that Sweden reached zero excess mortality by the end of May. This is a very good indication that their approach is working as they expected it would. Their execution has not been perfect, but they've been transparent about that and are working to address the known issues.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
jeffbee 6y ago
Georgia, like most states, is 2 weeks in arrears submitting mortality data to the CDC, so I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. It's amazing to me that we're 100 days into this thing and we still don't have accurate up-to-the-day mortality data.

hef19898 6y ago

You mean another one than the one currently happening in South America, India and the US? Also, it is not just deaths. The less at risk groups infect others, that can be more at risk.

tomohawk 6y ago
It's unfortunate that the excess mortality is not a metric that is rigorously collected at this time. As a result, it lags quite a bit. We'll know in a week or so how June looked. You're right that it is not just deaths, but morbidity. Someone who gets on a vent due to covid may never regain the life they had previously. However, we've learned a bit since April. Wearing masks works with social distancing, but requires administrative enforcement. Sweden has kept their schools open during this time (through high school) and offers an interesting point of comparison. It hasn't appeared to cause any problems for them. The main problems they've had are in the immigrant communities (220% higher rates of covid) and in elder care facilities.
- vkou 6y ago
  > It hasn't appeared to cause any problems for them. By which you mean, it is neck-and-neck with the United States and Brazil in daily cases per capita, and is soundly leading both countries in deaths per capita? Their strategy of 'isolate the vulnerable population and do little else' worked great, except for the part where it hasn't worked at all because... The vulnerable population is getting sick and dying.
  - tomohawk 6y ago
    If you look at the linked data, you'll see that Sweden reached zero excess mortality by the end of May. This is a very good indication that their approach is working as they expected it would. Their execution has not been perfect, but they've been transparent about that and are working to address the known issues.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]

jeffbee 6y ago

Georgia, like most states, is 2 weeks in arrears submitting mortality data to the CDC, so I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. It's amazing to me that we're 100 days into this thing and we still don't have accurate up-to-the-day mortality data.