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It seems to be in a lull, but the technology is still maturing. I suspect as the generation + storage costs continue to shift, it'll be adopted more eagerly.

by Jedd 6y ago

It seems to be in a lull, but the technology is still maturing. I suspect as the generation + storage costs continue to shift, it'll be adopted more eagerly. PVCs cost reduction has been a boon for that industry, but that tech, of course, ignores the storage problem. Reading about some of the missteps of CSP, much like the above, they seem to be share similar traits of government mishandling, bureaucracy, dodgy dealings, etc. EDIT: In any case, a naive interpretation of the Pakistan project cited -- if it truly is getting ~20% of anticipated power, cost per unit is 5x forecast, at which point a CSP would have been better value for money.

CydeWeys 6y ago
Why wouldn't solar thermal have the exact same issue with mirrors getting dusty though? I suspect that solar thermal is in more than a lull; I suspect that it's been obsoleted by PV and we aren't going to be seeing many new installations at all.
- Jedd 6y ago
  I suspect there's several answers to your first question. For example, the mechanical factor of parabolic mirrors that are typically used for CSP's - they can provide more shelter in terms of wind-deposited dust than flat panels all angled in the same direction (a la PV panels). I also suspect that mirrors are less sensitive to dust than PV cells. And that it's cheaper to just install more mirrors (flat reflective surfaces) to compensate for anticipated dust build-up, than photovoltaic panels (per unit of area or per unit of power generated). But, really, I expect there's a fair bit of research on this subject already out there. As I intimated, it's probably not so much an obsolescence issue, as one of pushing the storage question aside. CSPs address generation, with some ephemeral (cloud, evening, etc) storage capabilities. As per the standard observation - it's going to be a blend of power generation and storage technologies that sees us through.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    Good points. I still think that, overall, money talks, and the vast majority of solar installations are not managed nearly as incompetently as this one was (i.e. not forgetting to take into account sand in a desert). So the fact that close to 100% if not 100% of new solar installations are PV over solar thermal really does mean that once you take all these factors into account, PV is still more cost-effective. The storage issue is interesting, but doesn't matter so much to most plants since they tie into a larger balanced grid, and battery storage is coming down in cost at the same exponential rate as PV. These same advantages are not accruing to solar thermal. So I do think we are seeing the death knell for solar thermal, even when energy storage is desired alongside peak production.
    - Jedd 6y ago
      Agree up to a point. Storage can't be ignored - and the 'balanced grid' that we're all part of relies heavily on burning fossil fuels for both baseload coping with peaks (sun goes behind a cloud or the horizon, or the wind stops for a while). As we decom more of the fossil fuel systems, a more robust & scalable storage system, even a relatively ephemeral one, will become more compelling. (my prediction : )

by Jedd 6y ago

CydeWeys 6y ago

Why wouldn't solar thermal have the exact same issue with mirrors getting dusty though? I suspect that solar thermal is in more than a lull; I suspect that it's been obsoleted by PV and we aren't going to be seeing many new installations at all.

Jedd 6y ago
I suspect there's several answers to your first question. For example, the mechanical factor of parabolic mirrors that are typically used for CSP's - they can provide more shelter in terms of wind-deposited dust than flat panels all angled in the same direction (a la PV panels). I also suspect that mirrors are less sensitive to dust than PV cells. And that it's cheaper to just install more mirrors (flat reflective surfaces) to compensate for anticipated dust build-up, than photovoltaic panels (per unit of area or per unit of power generated). But, really, I expect there's a fair bit of research on this subject already out there. As I intimated, it's probably not so much an obsolescence issue, as one of pushing the storage question aside. CSPs address generation, with some ephemeral (cloud, evening, etc) storage capabilities. As per the standard observation - it's going to be a blend of power generation and storage technologies that sees us through.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  Good points. I still think that, overall, money talks, and the vast majority of solar installations are not managed nearly as incompetently as this one was (i.e. not forgetting to take into account sand in a desert). So the fact that close to 100% if not 100% of new solar installations are PV over solar thermal really does mean that once you take all these factors into account, PV is still more cost-effective. The storage issue is interesting, but doesn't matter so much to most plants since they tie into a larger balanced grid, and battery storage is coming down in cost at the same exponential rate as PV. These same advantages are not accruing to solar thermal. So I do think we are seeing the death knell for solar thermal, even when energy storage is desired alongside peak production.
  - Jedd 6y ago
    Agree up to a point. Storage can't be ignored - and the 'balanced grid' that we're all part of relies heavily on burning fossil fuels for both baseload coping with peaks (sun goes behind a cloud or the horizon, or the wind stops for a while). As we decom more of the fossil fuel systems, a more robust & scalable storage system, even a relatively ephemeral one, will become more compelling. (my prediction : )