> But what I am saying is that maybe the "reasoning" regarding what will happen without them isn't as much established fact as many people like to believe. I d

> But what I am saying is that maybe the "reasoning" regarding what will happen without them isn't as much established fact as many people like to believe. I don't think anyone thought of it as established fact. But it also wasn't an established fact that we didn't have to take all those measures. It's a question of risk, not of absolute foreknowledge. Also, as @acqq correctly points out, a period of time with strict lockdown can reduce the number of cases to the point that a relaxation of controls doesn't immediately result in a large outbreak. An exponential curve has a flat region [0] where it doesn't seem to be getting out of hand. If you manage to put yourselves well into that flat region, you will have bought yourself a period of time in which the controls can be relaxed. But it's only temporary. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth