3 ms·

> with an incubation time of two weeks Can we stop perpetuating this myth? 14 days is when 99.5% of the people show symptoms. The median, which is far more imp

> with an incubation time of two weeks Can we stop perpetuating this myth? 14 days is when 99.5% of the people show symptoms. The median, which is far more important, is between 2 to 4 days.

jacquesm 6y ago
Only it isn't a myth. "The typical incubation period for COVID‑19 is five or six days, but it can range from one to fourteen days with approximately ten percent of cases taking longer." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 I could have been more correct by writing 'up to', but if 10% of the cases take longer than 14 days then 99.5% within 14 days should be 90%. Playing it safe with the incubation time around international arrivals is what has led to authorities the world over adopting the 14 day quarantine.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  I've looked up some papers on the maximum incubation period (by no means a comprehensive search): - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32594928/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32594928/ (14 days in 99.5) - https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyaa106/5864951#205111148 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyaa106... (this one says 95% within 14 days) - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7302302/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7302302/ (preprint, says median is 5.35 days, and says the data support the 14 day intervention policy but gives no data about why so) Most of the studies are with "old" outbreaks so likely more data is needed. Yet the median is still around 2-6 days. > Playing it safe with the incubation time That is, applying the precautionary principle. Not very scientific, but understandable (although I don't agree with it). Personally, now that we're well into the epidemic, I'd expect a little more rigor, though.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    Well, given the cost associated with dealing with outbreaks it would make sense to play it safe, precautions have a cost near zero and an outbreak has a fairly large cost especially if not detected soon enough.

> with an incubation time of two weeks Can we stop perpetuating this myth? 14 days is when 99.5% of the people show symptoms. The median, which is far more important, is between 2 to 4 days.

jacquesm 6y ago

Only it isn't a myth. "The typical incubation period for COVID‑19 is five or six days, but it can range from one to fourteen days with approximately ten percent of cases taking longer." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 I could have been more correct by writing 'up to', but if 10% of the cases take longer than 14 days then 99.5% within 14 days should be 90%. Playing it safe with the incubation time around international arrivals is what has led to authorities the world over adopting the 14 day quarantine.

lbeltrame 6y ago
I've looked up some papers on the maximum incubation period (by no means a comprehensive search): - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32594928/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32594928/ (14 days in 99.5) - https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyaa106/5864951#205111148 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyaa106... (this one says 95% within 14 days) - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7302302/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7302302/ (preprint, says median is 5.35 days, and says the data support the 14 day intervention policy but gives no data about why so) Most of the studies are with "old" outbreaks so likely more data is needed. Yet the median is still around 2-6 days. > Playing it safe with the incubation time That is, applying the precautionary principle. Not very scientific, but understandable (although I don't agree with it). Personally, now that we're well into the epidemic, I'd expect a little more rigor, though.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  Well, given the cost associated with dealing with outbreaks it would make sense to play it safe, precautions have a cost near zero and an outbreak has a fairly large cost especially if not detected soon enough.