4 ms·

> Say for example half of the population, 50 out of 100. I think you're confusing susceptible and immune. If the antibody numbers are legit, then the asymptoma

> Say for example half of the population, 50 out of 100. I think you're confusing susceptible and immune. If the antibody numbers are legit, then the asymptomatic rate is around 90%, but that's not the full story. You have to remember that asymptomatic people still spread the virus, so this plays differently in herd immunity modeling. You're still looking at a 1% average death rate in NYC too given those numbers. That 50% of people you mentioned is not about symptomatic - they must also not be able to transmit. Otherwise using a SIR model or similar there's still 80% of the population that can catch and infect others. I have seen nothing about such natural immunity in people even in small numbers, let alone at 50% of the population. That assumption is doing a lot of legwork in your herd immunity claim. At best, your assumptions still means we need to accept just under a million deaths. At worst, even with no increased death rate due to hospital load, that's closer to 3 million. When other countries have shown clear alternatives by taking measures that don't lead to 1% of their population dying (such as Germany at 0.01% so far), one of which is mask usage, I don't see how there's harm in the policy when it could mean literally saving millions of lives. All of that relies on antibodies lasting, which doesn't seem to be guaranteed[1], as I pointed out in my post before. That can make this much worse if/when people begin to catch it again. [1]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-antibodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-...

trhway 6y ago
NYC made masks law on April 15. Germany somewhere around a week later. > I don't see how there's harm in the policy when it could mean literally saving millions of lives. there is no harm. I wear my. Even though all the facts and math shows that it doesn't make any noticeable difference at this point. >At best, your assumptions still means we need to accept just under a million deaths accept or no accept, covid doesn't care. Anyway, we have already "accepted" it by letting it develop into the current scale. I think original Fauci deaths estimates - up to 250K - made under obvious political pressure to voice lower numbers than he'd do otherwise - is pretty close. From the current 20M+ we'd get 3-4x with death rate falling, thus we'd get into 250K-500K range. I don't see how masks or lockdowns, which haven't been able to stop us from the 10000x jump - tens/hundreds cases into tens of millions - are going to stop us from the 3-4x or even 10x (if the 10x were possible in the current situation which it isn't because the herd immunity threshold looks to be significantly lower)
- adjkant 6y ago
  > NYC made masks law on April 15. Germany somewhere around a week later. And you left off that NYC's cases dropped the entire time those mask policies were in effect. We didn't isolate for it as the lockdown was in place, but there's at the very least a positive correlation, and the lack of spike from the protests supports that too. I don't see why you jump to defeatism from that evidence. You're assuming people in most of the US paid attention to the laws and advisories. In Florida for example, mask usage was incredibly low and has caused the spike there. Same for Texas. We don't know if masks would stop the initial jump because we didn't use them. All evidence from other countries points to the conclusion that they do help in a meaningful way. If you're saying you don't believe the American populace is capable of following instructions, you might be right, but if we actually enforced and practiced mask policies, it very much appears it would make a meaningful difference.
  - trhway 6y ago
    >And you left off that NYC's cases dropped the entire time those mask policies were in effect. you're right. I somehow was under impression that the peak cases were a month later there. Lets see. I'm still really not optimistic giving the current scale of the spread.

trhway 6y ago

NYC made masks law on April 15. Germany somewhere around a week later. > I don't see how there's harm in the policy when it could mean literally saving millions of lives. there is no harm. I wear my. Even though all the facts and math shows that it doesn't make any noticeable difference at this point. >At best, your assumptions still means we need to accept just under a million deaths accept or no accept, covid doesn't care. Anyway, we have already "accepted" it by letting it develop into the current scale. I think original Fauci deaths estimates - up to 250K - made under obvious political pressure to voice lower numbers than he'd do otherwise - is pretty close. From the current 20M+ we'd get 3-4x with death rate falling, thus we'd get into 250K-500K range. I don't see how masks or lockdowns, which haven't been able to stop us from the 10000x jump - tens/hundreds cases into tens of millions - are going to stop us from the 3-4x or even 10x (if the 10x were possible in the current situation which it isn't because the herd immunity threshold looks to be significantly lower)

adjkant 6y ago
> NYC made masks law on April 15. Germany somewhere around a week later. And you left off that NYC's cases dropped the entire time those mask policies were in effect. We didn't isolate for it as the lockdown was in place, but there's at the very least a positive correlation, and the lack of spike from the protests supports that too. I don't see why you jump to defeatism from that evidence. You're assuming people in most of the US paid attention to the laws and advisories. In Florida for example, mask usage was incredibly low and has caused the spike there. Same for Texas. We don't know if masks would stop the initial jump because we didn't use them. All evidence from other countries points to the conclusion that they do help in a meaningful way. If you're saying you don't believe the American populace is capable of following instructions, you might be right, but if we actually enforced and practiced mask policies, it very much appears it would make a meaningful difference.
- trhway 6y ago
  >And you left off that NYC's cases dropped the entire time those mask policies were in effect. you're right. I somehow was under impression that the peak cases were a month later there. Lets see. I'm still really not optimistic giving the current scale of the spread.