Many places are counting suspected COVID-19 deaths in the total which doesn't require a positive test. It is much easier to get an accurate picture of suspecte

Many places are counting suspected COVID-19 deaths in the total which doesn't require a positive test. It is much easier to get an accurate picture of suspected deaths than suspected cases so the lack of testing has a much bigger impact on cases. Beyond that, I agree with you that there are too many variable involved to know exactly what is going on. I simply think the lack of adequate testing means the curve of the new cases plot from early in the pandemic is actively misleading. Your analysis/predictions are more optimistic than mine so hopefully you are right and I'm wrong.