4 ms·

On what basis do you stake your claim?

by ericb 6y ago

guscost 6y ago
I'm commenting (as I always do) under my real name. I'm staking my personal reputation, and there is a very real chance that I'll be wrong.
- ericb 6y ago
  I'm not asking about the stakes in that sense. Your claim is only interesting to the extent you can demonstrate a logical basis to believe it to be valid. Can you provide your reasoning? edit: Ok, I see you are the one with polemic blog post. I see that you seem to think it is "just a cold" because it is a coronavirus. It seems you are making a categorization error. Like saying because there are garden snakes, having a cobra in your house is no big deal--just a snake! Why would the waves of death never come? So far more people have died than WWII. The deaths lag new infections, and new infections have spiked. I see you are interested in other folks admitting they are wrong--will you?
  - guscost 6y ago
    > Can you provide your reasoning? Susceptibility varies widely between individuals, with four grades of antibody response, as well as at least one form of T-Cell-mediated response, already documented in the literature. There is enough evidence to suggest that this virus is airborne, and if everyone were completely susceptible the "true" R0 (this model parameter is a convenient fiction, of course) would be close to that of measles. Therefore it has already spread very far in any dense population that was susceptible, and we are basically already at herd immunity in NYC and many other places. > Ok, I see you are the one with polemic blog post. Yay, I'm a niche HN celebrity! > I see that you seem to think it is "just a cold" because it is a coronavirus. You are skipping over a critical detail, which is that any virus can be much more virulent after it jumps between species. But yes this one is basically a new cold, and in time it will present much like all the others (if it becomes endemic). > So far more people have died than WWII. What the fuck??? > I see you are interested in other folks admitting they are wrong--will you? If half a million Americans die from this thing (not merely with it, and before it becomes just another cold, not over the next 20 years), you can count on it. This will not happen.
    - ericb 6y ago
      The attenuation you seem to be banking on only happens if there is selective pressure toward it. The selective pressure is usually a product of "too deadly or too strong a response prevents the host from spreading" so weaker strains that let the host spread more win out in a game theoretical sense by out-competing. This is not a likely force in this case--this is already spreading really really effectively, so I think the force behind attenuation is missing and your assumption is entirely faulty. > So far more people have died than WWII. > What the fuck??? You are right on this one, bad bad misquote on my part.

On what basis do you stake your claim?

by ericb 6y ago

On what basis do you stake your claim?

I'm commenting (as I always do) under my real name. I'm staking my personal reputation, and there is a very real chance that I'll be wrong.

ericb 6y ago
I'm not asking about the stakes in that sense. Your claim is only interesting to the extent you can demonstrate a logical basis to believe it to be valid. Can you provide your reasoning? edit: Ok, I see you are the one with polemic blog post. I see that you seem to think it is "just a cold" because it is a coronavirus. It seems you are making a categorization error. Like saying because there are garden snakes, having a cobra in your house is no big deal--just a snake! Why would the waves of death never come? So far more people have died than WWII. The deaths lag new infections, and new infections have spiked. I see you are interested in other folks admitting they are wrong--will you?
- guscost 6y ago
  > Can you provide your reasoning? Susceptibility varies widely between individuals, with four grades of antibody response, as well as at least one form of T-Cell-mediated response, already documented in the literature. There is enough evidence to suggest that this virus is airborne, and if everyone were completely susceptible the "true" R0 (this model parameter is a convenient fiction, of course) would be close to that of measles. Therefore it has already spread very far in any dense population that was susceptible, and we are basically already at herd immunity in NYC and many other places. > Ok, I see you are the one with polemic blog post. Yay, I'm a niche HN celebrity! > I see that you seem to think it is "just a cold" because it is a coronavirus. You are skipping over a critical detail, which is that any virus can be much more virulent after it jumps between species. But yes this one is basically a new cold, and in time it will present much like all the others (if it becomes endemic). > So far more people have died than WWII. What the fuck??? > I see you are interested in other folks admitting they are wrong--will you? If half a million Americans die from this thing (not merely with it, and before it becomes just another cold, not over the next 20 years), you can count on it. This will not happen.
  - ericb 6y ago
    The attenuation you seem to be banking on only happens if there is selective pressure toward it. The selective pressure is usually a product of "too deadly or too strong a response prevents the host from spreading" so weaker strains that let the host spread more win out in a game theoretical sense by out-competing. This is not a likely force in this case--this is already spreading really really effectively, so I think the force behind attenuation is missing and your assumption is entirely faulty. > So far more people have died than WWII. > What the fuck??? You are right on this one, bad bad misquote on my part.