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>Because the US lockdown didn't really begin to lift until June, the USA is hitting this secondary surge right now, and some states are trying to lock down agai

>Because the US lockdown didn't really begin to lift until June, the USA is hitting this secondary surge right now, and some states are trying to lock down again. Red states with Republican governors who are in complete denial are getting hit badly, though—notably Texas and Florida. They really had to get partisan, didn't they? Unfortunately, the data doesn't support this claim. The fatality rate in both Texas and Florida has been flat since peaking in April, and their overall number of cases has been just a fraction of what they are in California and New York. But hey, they're run by Republicans, therefore we have to call them evil, meanwhile ignore the thousands of people literally massing in the streets spreading Covid in Democrat-run states... [Texas fatality rate](https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPupSHsA8&q=texas+covid+fatality+rate&oq=texas+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeOgUIABCxAzoFCAAQgwE6AgguOgUILhCxAzoFCC4QgwFQTFjeIWD-ImgAcAB4AYAB6wGIAeYRkgEGMjAuNC4xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjCq__6rbHqAhWZmHIEHTrKAfYQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPu...). [Florida fatality rate](https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPjo6HWA&q=florida+covid+fatality+rate&oq=florida+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB46BwgAEIMBEEM6BAgAEEM6BQgAEJECOgcILhCxAxBDOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQgAEIMBOgQIABAKOgcIABCxAxBDUP4BWOsqYOcraAFwAHgBgAGVAogBiRqSAQcxNC4xMS4zmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwiC1bWTrrHqAhUXlnIEHQ7HAQsQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPj...). Overall cases are either flat or slightly increasing, as was predicted. The lockdown was never expected to make Covid go away. Only to ["flatten the curve"](https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flatte...), e.g. slow down the spread so that hospitals wouldn't get overwhelmed.

Hello71 6y ago
this is a joke, right? https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases
- haberdasher 6y ago
  Also, deaths lag cases.
- SmokeyHamster 6y ago
  this is a joke, right? Cases != fatalities. A lot of places are doing a lot more testing. That causes case count to rise. That doesn't mean the disease is spreading beyond control. If it were, the fatality rate would also be increasing, which it's not. Sorry, but you're going to have to find some other reason to justify your partisan hate boner.
  - ggggtez 6y ago
    Your data doesn't show testing rate. Maybe it could be true, but your data doesn't come anywhere close to showing it... And in fact, when we actually find the data that would prove it, the data shows the opposite. [1] If you check Florida, you'll see that they actually decreased testing by 22%, and still had an increase in positive cases (over 300%!). Testing less, and getting more sick people is basically the definition of it being out of control. [1] https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-do... The Governor of Florida is even quoted in this article as disagreeing with you, and admitting that testing doesn't account for the increase. While he might not be an expert, it should make you take another look, as this is politically damaging for him to say his party leader is wrong.
- jonhohle 6y ago
  Denominators are important. Statistics are important. A raw count without other supporting data (how many tests have been given, what is the population in areas where cases are increasing) has absolutely no meaning. There have been ≈3.5M cases in the US. That sounds awful! That’s out of 35M people tested. At its peak the infection rate for people tested in the US was around 12%. The current infection rate is 9%. The rate is falling, not rising. As more people are tested the numerator increases - it’s a tautology. It’s meaningless without understanding the context. Media outlets Are going to drown out any rational discussion (and search results) with their hyperbole.
ggggtez 6y ago
>partisan First point: Do you really think it's partisan to point out that governors from the same political party tend to follow similar courses of action? Second point: let's use your own data against you [1][2]. According to you, overall cases are "flat or slightly increasing" but actually your chart is about deaths. The overall cases have doubled in the last week. Which means, all things being equal, that over the next two weeks or so, we'll be seeing a doubling of deaths follow suit. [1] https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPjo6HWA&q=florida+covid+fatality+rate&oq=florida+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB46BwgAEIMBEEM6BAgAEEM6BQgAEJECOgcILhCxAxBDOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQgAEIMBOgQIABAKOgcIABCxAxBDUP4BWOsqYOcraAFwAHgBgAGVAogBiRqSAQcxNC4xMS4zmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwiC1bWTrrHqAhUXlnIEHQ7HAQsQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPj... [2] https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPupSHsA8&q=texas+covid+fatality+rate&oq=texas+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeOgUIABCxAzoFCAAQgwE6AgguOgUILhCxAzoFCC4QgwFQTFjeIWD-ImgAcAB4AYAB6wGIAeYRkgEGMjAuNC4xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjCq__6rbHqAhWZmHIEHTrKAfYQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPu...
- guscost 6y ago
  It is absolutely partisan to characterize their actions with the phrase "in complete denial", without acknowledging that there are serious and fatal consequences of any lockdown that must be weighed against the benefits. These governors are probably making a good-faith judgement call which (while perhaps in error) is about as far from "denial" as it is possible to be. What else but partisanship could motivate the ridiculous claim that governors belonging to one political party are flatly ignoring the risk of additional infection? To me personally, the tone comes across as way beyond partisan. It is smug, disgusting bullying.
  - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
    I doubt they feel bullied. If they don’t even notice, how can it be called bullying?
tzs 6y ago
> meanwhile ignore the thousands of people literally massing in the streets spreading Covid in Democrat-run states... Those protests were in open air, with a very large majority wearing masks, with people constantly moving about so if you did come near an infected person you probably weren't near them long enough to get an infectious dose. Also, in some of the cities officials did heavy testing of people at the protests or after they attended. In Minneapolis they got 1.8% positive among 3200 people they tested at the protest, and 1% among 8500 people who sought tests afterwards citing attending the protests as their reason for concern. Seattle had less than 1% positive among the 3000 protestors it tested. Boston had 1.1% among the ~1300 it tested. As mentioned above, when you encounter an infected person in passing in an open air event with both of you wearing masks, you probably won't get an infectious dose. And with only 1-2% of the people at that event infected, you probably won't encounter enough of them to get an accumulated infectious dose either. Yes, it is better not to have these protests during a pandemic...but at least they held the protests in places that minimized the risk and the attendees took steps to protect themselves. Contrast this to groups that are holding their mass gatherings indoors in places where attendees will be relatively static for hours, where most attendees will not take any protective steps, and where they are discouraging even social distancing. Also, many of the attendees will have not been taking any protective steps in the days or weeks before, so I'd expect the percentage infected going into the event to be higher than it was for the people going into the protests. The big difference between these events and the protests is that in the later case the organizers recognized the risk and tried to limit it. They may have underestimated the risk of overestimated the effectiveness of their mitigations (although so far the numbers look like they were probably right), but if so that's a quantitative error not a qualitative one. Those indoor, don't move around, don't mitigate the risk events, are not even trying to mitigate the risk. They are making a qualitative error.

Hello71 6y ago

this is a joke, right? https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases

haberdasher 6y ago
Also, deaths lag cases.
SmokeyHamster 6y ago
this is a joke, right? Cases != fatalities. A lot of places are doing a lot more testing. That causes case count to rise. That doesn't mean the disease is spreading beyond control. If it were, the fatality rate would also be increasing, which it's not. Sorry, but you're going to have to find some other reason to justify your partisan hate boner.
- ggggtez 6y ago
  Your data doesn't show testing rate. Maybe it could be true, but your data doesn't come anywhere close to showing it... And in fact, when we actually find the data that would prove it, the data shows the opposite. [1] If you check Florida, you'll see that they actually decreased testing by 22%, and still had an increase in positive cases (over 300%!). Testing less, and getting more sick people is basically the definition of it being out of control. [1] https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-doesnt-support-trumps-misleading-testing-claims https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-do... The Governor of Florida is even quoted in this article as disagreeing with you, and admitting that testing doesn't account for the increase. While he might not be an expert, it should make you take another look, as this is politically damaging for him to say his party leader is wrong.
jonhohle 6y ago
Denominators are important. Statistics are important. A raw count without other supporting data (how many tests have been given, what is the population in areas where cases are increasing) has absolutely no meaning. There have been ≈3.5M cases in the US. That sounds awful! That’s out of 35M people tested. At its peak the infection rate for people tested in the US was around 12%. The current infection rate is 9%. The rate is falling, not rising. As more people are tested the numerator increases - it’s a tautology. It’s meaningless without understanding the context. Media outlets Are going to drown out any rational discussion (and search results) with their hyperbole.

ggggtez 6y ago

>partisan First point: Do you really think it's partisan to point out that governors from the same political party tend to follow similar courses of action? Second point: let's use your own data against you [1][2]. According to you, overall cases are "flat or slightly increasing" but actually your chart is about deaths. The overall cases have doubled in the last week. Which means, all things being equal, that over the next two weeks or so, we'll be seeing a doubling of deaths follow suit. [1] https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPjo6HWA&q=florida+covid+fatality+rate&oq=florida+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB46BwgAEIMBEEM6BAgAEEM6BQgAEJECOgcILhCxAxBDOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQgAEIMBOgQIABAKOgcIABCxAxBDUP4BWOsqYOcraAFwAHgBgAGVAogBiRqSAQcxNC4xMS4zmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwiC1bWTrrHqAhUXlnIEHQ7HAQsQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tEn_XoKrOpesytMPj... [2] https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPupSHsA8&q=texas+covid+fatality+rate&oq=texas+covid+fatality+rate&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzICCAAyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeOgUIABCxAzoFCAAQgwE6AgguOgUILhCxAzoFCC4QgwFQTFjeIWD-ImgAcAB4AYAB6wGIAeYRkgEGMjAuNC4xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjCq__6rbHqAhWZmHIEHTrKAfYQ4dUDCAk&uact=5 https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=gUn_XoLnLJmxytMPu...

guscost 6y ago
It is absolutely partisan to characterize their actions with the phrase "in complete denial", without acknowledging that there are serious and fatal consequences of any lockdown that must be weighed against the benefits. These governors are probably making a good-faith judgement call which (while perhaps in error) is about as far from "denial" as it is possible to be. What else but partisanship could motivate the ridiculous claim that governors belonging to one political party are flatly ignoring the risk of additional infection? To me personally, the tone comes across as way beyond partisan. It is smug, disgusting bullying.
- amanaplanacanal 6y ago
  I doubt they feel bullied. If they don’t even notice, how can it be called bullying?

tzs 6y ago

> meanwhile ignore the thousands of people literally massing in the streets spreading Covid in Democrat-run states... Those protests were in open air, with a very large majority wearing masks, with people constantly moving about so if you did come near an infected person you probably weren't near them long enough to get an infectious dose. Also, in some of the cities officials did heavy testing of people at the protests or after they attended. In Minneapolis they got 1.8% positive among 3200 people they tested at the protest, and 1% among 8500 people who sought tests afterwards citing attending the protests as their reason for concern. Seattle had less than 1% positive among the 3000 protestors it tested. Boston had 1.1% among the ~1300 it tested. As mentioned above, when you encounter an infected person in passing in an open air event with both of you wearing masks, you probably won't get an infectious dose. And with only 1-2% of the people at that event infected, you probably won't encounter enough of them to get an accumulated infectious dose either. Yes, it is better not to have these protests during a pandemic...but at least they held the protests in places that minimized the risk and the attendees took steps to protect themselves. Contrast this to groups that are holding their mass gatherings indoors in places where attendees will be relatively static for hours, where most attendees will not take any protective steps, and where they are discouraging even social distancing. Also, many of the attendees will have not been taking any protective steps in the days or weeks before, so I'd expect the percentage infected going into the event to be higher than it was for the people going into the protests. The big difference between these events and the protests is that in the later case the organizers recognized the risk and tried to limit it. They may have underestimated the risk of overestimated the effectiveness of their mitigations (although so far the numbers look like they were probably right), but if so that's a quantitative error not a qualitative one. Those indoor, don't move around, don't mitigate the risk events, are not even trying to mitigate the risk. They are making a qualitative error.