5 ms·

The big difference is testing capabilities. All places hit by big waves early on suffered from poor testing and public awareness, so testing happened in a burst

The big difference is testing capabilities. All places hit by big waves early on suffered from poor testing and public awareness, so testing happened in a burst as the deaths were starting to become problematic. And generally those getting tested at peaks were the symptomatic/hospitalized. NYC is estimated to have been around 20% infected, so the actual infection count was highly undereported. It is important to also recognize that every location hit hard was met with immediate lockdown, generally followed well by scared populations. The situation is far different now, with a good chunk of people actively rejecting even basic distancing measures. If you look beyond positive test numbers at the % positive you can see the rates are rising even faster beyond our testing capabilities. And the idea that only 20-30 year olds are getting the disease is wishful thinking - the highest risk situation is from household transmission, at over 80% likely. Combine high infections with a general disregard of safety and those older populations are bound to be infected as young spreaders interact with their families, at offices, supermarkets, etc. I think this is why the death spike lags a fair bit further than expected.

irq11 6y ago
” And the idea that only 20-30 year olds are getting the disease is wishful thinking - the highest risk situation is from household transmission, at over 80% likely. Combine high infections with a general disregard of safety and those older populations are bound to be infected as young spreaders interact with their families, at offices, supermarkets, etc. I think this is why the death spike lags a fair bit further than expected.” Three things: 1) It’s been over a month since case count started to grow in the southern states. Hospitalization and deaths by day are not growing at all in FL or AZ, and only hospitalizations are growing slowly in TX: https://covid-19.direct/state/FL?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/FL?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/TX?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/TX?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/AZ?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/AZ?tab=daily 2) It isn’t “wishful thinking”; the age distributions of positive results out of Texas clearly show that most of the people testing positive are younger, and it seems to be true in FL as well: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/3f048ced32804271aafe8b9640bcb4a7 https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2020/06/19/gov-desantis-median-age-of-florida-covid-19-patients-declining/%3foutputType=amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2... 3) It’s not very common to see multi-generational households in the US. Maybe it’s true that this surge will eventually make it’s way to the high-risk, but it’s been over a month already, and that doesn’t appear to be true yet. At some point, predictions of the future have to be tempered by current evidence.

irq11 6y ago

” And the idea that only 20-30 year olds are getting the disease is wishful thinking - the highest risk situation is from household transmission, at over 80% likely. Combine high infections with a general disregard of safety and those older populations are bound to be infected as young spreaders interact with their families, at offices, supermarkets, etc. I think this is why the death spike lags a fair bit further than expected.” Three things: 1) It’s been over a month since case count started to grow in the southern states. Hospitalization and deaths by day are not growing at all in FL or AZ, and only hospitalizations are growing slowly in TX: https://covid-19.direct/state/FL?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/FL?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/TX?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/TX?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/AZ?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/AZ?tab=daily 2) It isn’t “wishful thinking”; the age distributions of positive results out of Texas clearly show that most of the people testing positive are younger, and it seems to be true in FL as well: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/3f048ced32804271aafe8b9640bcb4a7 https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2020/06/19/gov-desantis-median-age-of-florida-covid-19-patients-declining/%3foutputType=amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2... 3) It’s not very common to see multi-generational households in the US. Maybe it’s true that this surge will eventually make it’s way to the high-risk, but it’s been over a month already, and that doesn’t appear to be true yet. At some point, predictions of the future have to be tempered by current evidence.