3 ms·
If this pandemic were to ravage through the world unmitigated, we'd have, say, 3 bn people infected in short order, resulting in 15 million deaths (assuming a 0
by FabHK 6y ago
If this pandemic were to ravage through the world unmitigated, we'd have, say, 3 bn people infected in short order, resulting in 15 million deaths (assuming a 0.5% IFR). Seems to be in the same league.
- smt88 6y agoNo. The death rate would be far, far higher, perhaps an order of magnitude, because hospitals would be overrun. Even if the Covid patients had a low death rate at the hospital, millions more would be refused treatment, millions more than that would die because Covid patients took up all the beds.
- perl4ever 6y agoI saw a news article that described how hospitals were running out of beds (in Houston I think) and then they qualified it by saying that 60+% of the ICU beds were being used by non-corona patients, as if they were afraid of being accused of exaggerating the crisis. And I was like, oh, yeah, obviously they can just tell those people who don't have the virus to GTFO and make space...wait, why are they in the ICU then?
- MattRix 6y agoAnd if it were truly unmitigated, the fatality rate would increase because the hospitals would be full. The fatality rate would basically rise until it matched the hospitalization rate.