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It won't make a difference. In Europe countries have been lifting their lockdown measures and the spike in cases they expected to see didn't happen. Massive pro

by gizmo 6y ago

It won't make a difference. In Europe countries have been lifting their lockdown measures and the spike in cases they expected to see didn't happen. Massive protests happened in major European cities and nothing happened. Massive protests in NY didn't result in a spike of cases. In most places COVID-19 is over. Done. When the dust has settled covid19 will be seen as just another really bad flu season.

FabHK 6y ago
You presumably forgot the "</sarcasm>" or ";-)"? In case you were serious, the reason things are working out, more or less, in China and Europe is that measures were put in place (and people have stuck to them, by and large) such that the incidence of new cases fell a lot. Second half of the year in the Americas look less promising. EDIT: replaced summer and fall by second half of the year, given that half the Americas are south of the equator...
brazzy 6y ago
This so incredibly wrong and stupid. European countries have selectively lifted some lockdown measures and are closely monitoring the situation. Local outbreak spikes are happening. Many protests actually observed at least some degree of distancing, and their impact is mitigated by them happening outside - the strongest infection vector seems to be areosol, which is far more dangerous indoors. Many places are still seing exponential growth. Anyone who still trots out the "just another bad flu season" claim is just criminally stupid.
- gizmo 6y ago
  How do you explain the spike in cases among 20-29 in MN right after the protests[1]? You can call me stupid all you like, but the data speaks for itself. Even Fauci referred to protests as having the "perfect set-up" conditions for hotspot spreading to take place[2]. The next step is to ask yourself why no similar spike in cases happened after protests in NY or Paris, even though they also had this "perfect set-up" for spreading. 1: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebpl1DVU0AAPHMs?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebpl1DVU0AAPHMs?format=jpg&name=... 2: https://www.businessinsider.nl/dr-fauci-protests-perfect-set-up-for-spreading-covid-19-2020-6?international=true&r=US https://www.businessinsider.nl/dr-fauci-protests-perfect-set...
  - guscost 6y ago
    I think that you will be proven correct eventually, but in many circles this argument still prompts a nasty, negative, and thoroughly irrational response. “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” -Unknown
    - brazzy 6y ago
      He is proven wrong already. Just look at the fucking case numbers. The irrational position based on deceit is yours.
      - guscost 6y ago
        You have a very disappointing standard for "proof": https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-states-to-count-probable-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-but-most-arent-doing-it/2020/06/07/4aac9a58-9d0a-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... https://google.com?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com?q=ny+coronavirus+cases By "the fucking case numbers", I assume you mean only those statistics which are spoon-fed by an industry that makes money scaring people into noticing advertisements.
        brazzy 6y ago
        > You have a very disappointing standard for "proof": Lol, are you trying to tell me what sources I'm using? I'm not even American. > https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-states-to-count-probable-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-but-most-arent-doing-it/2020/06/07/4aac9a58-9d0a-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... What's that supposed to tell me? That a liberal agenda is trying to inflate the numbers? Just looking at actual test results isn't any prettier: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... Look at Russia, Mexico, Ukraine, Sweden. > https://google.com/?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=florida+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=florida+coronavirus+cases
paganel 6y ago
You're being down-voted for no good reason, as you were discussing on point. Back to Europe, spikes did in fact happen (I do live in an European country experiencing suck a spike, i.e Romania), but those spikes generally happened in countries that hadn't been affected by the virus all that much in the first run, i.e. the Balkans, Portugal (relatively speaking wen comparing it to neighbouring Spain), I'd say even Czechia. Spikes didn't seem to happen in countries like Spain or Italy that had been hit pretty damn hard the first time.
- brazzy 6y ago
  He's being downvoted for making blatantly false claims. Yours are no better. Romania and Serbia aren's seeing "spikes", they're having a second wave that looks like it will very soon eclipse the first. Sweden's case numbers haven't actually stopped growing. Germany, which had one of the highest case numbers for a long time now had a spike with 1300 cases in a single meat factory. Many other countries have stable low case numbers, which means that they're fine at their current level of containment measures, but could easily see a second wave hit quickly if they undo those measures. I don't think there's any European country with case numbers low enough that they could safely rely on contact tracing alone - South Korea tried that, with the result that they went from single-digit daily case numbers back to mid-double digits. The problem is that in crowded indoor conditions, you get "superspreading" events that can completely destroy all the progress made over months of containment.
  - paganel 6y ago
    > they're having a second wave that looks like it will very soon eclipse the firs Yes, that's what a spike means. And for the record, that's exactly what the Romanian Health minister called it two days ago, i.e. not a second wave, because in his opinion the first wave never stopped, but a spike. > Sweden's case numbers haven't actually stopped growing. I know that, and I'll answer that what I answered to other people online: this isn't a video game where we should chase the lowest number of cases the same way as we're chasing a score, this is real life where we should chase the less number of deaths possible. And in Sweden the number of deaths is definitely on a downward spiral. We're going to have to live with this virus, many of us already do, there are not that many economical resources available to keep the majority of the population locked indoors (to say nothing of the psychic and mental effects this is having on the population).
eagsalazar2 6y ago
If you could have seen the local Lowes or a big park in Salt Lake City a couple weeks ago - 70% of people no masks, no social distancing, packed with long lines, many people almost intentionally, defiantly disregarding guidelines. This is happening everywhere in the US and is a totally different level of opening up from what is happening in Europe. Your apples to oranges comparison is completely misguided.
rsynnott 6y ago
> In Europe countries have been lifting their lockdown measures Lifting some of them. Some pubs and restaurants just opened here this week under heavy restrictions, for instance; too soon to see what impact that has on cases. And that was after case numbers were brought down to a few a day; we didn't just lift restrictions while we were still seeing hundreds a day. And of course people are being pretty cautious, mostly still on furlough or working from home, etc. Supermarkets are still letting only a few people in at a time. And the list goes on. We're 'reopening', but we are nowhere close to normal, and a return to normality isn't envisaged at this point; there is no deadline by which the supermarkets will return to full capacity, say. > Massive protests happened in major European cities and nothing happened. Massive protests in NY didn't result in a spike of cases While the results arguably aren't totally in, you'd expect outdoor, largely masked, protest to be a lot lower risk than, say, pubs and restaurants reopening. Purely from a public health perspective it wasn't ideal, but it wasn't remotely as risky as the last stages of reopening. > In most places COVID-19 is over. Done Where? In the last few weeks in Ireland we've had anywhere from 1 to 20 cases per day, more or less at random. It's down a lot from peak, but it hasn't gone away and it could surge back if we screw up (and there are some early indications that it might be doing so; those pubs and restaurants may not be open for long). It's a similar story in most places in Europe (adjusted per capita).

by gizmo 6y ago

FabHK 6y ago

You presumably forgot the "</sarcasm>" or ";-)"? In case you were serious, the reason things are working out, more or less, in China and Europe is that measures were put in place (and people have stuck to them, by and large) such that the incidence of new cases fell a lot. Second half of the year in the Americas look less promising. EDIT: replaced summer and fall by second half of the year, given that half the Americas are south of the equator...

brazzy 6y ago

This so incredibly wrong and stupid. European countries have selectively lifted some lockdown measures and are closely monitoring the situation. Local outbreak spikes are happening. Many protests actually observed at least some degree of distancing, and their impact is mitigated by them happening outside - the strongest infection vector seems to be areosol, which is far more dangerous indoors. Many places are still seing exponential growth. Anyone who still trots out the "just another bad flu season" claim is just criminally stupid.

gizmo 6y ago
How do you explain the spike in cases among 20-29 in MN right after the protests[1]? You can call me stupid all you like, but the data speaks for itself. Even Fauci referred to protests as having the "perfect set-up" conditions for hotspot spreading to take place[2]. The next step is to ask yourself why no similar spike in cases happened after protests in NY or Paris, even though they also had this "perfect set-up" for spreading. 1: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebpl1DVU0AAPHMs?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebpl1DVU0AAPHMs?format=jpg&name=... 2: https://www.businessinsider.nl/dr-fauci-protests-perfect-set-up-for-spreading-covid-19-2020-6?international=true&r=US https://www.businessinsider.nl/dr-fauci-protests-perfect-set...
- guscost 6y ago
  I think that you will be proven correct eventually, but in many circles this argument still prompts a nasty, negative, and thoroughly irrational response. “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” -Unknown
  - brazzy 6y ago
    He is proven wrong already. Just look at the fucking case numbers. The irrational position based on deceit is yours.
    - guscost 6y ago
      You have a very disappointing standard for "proof": https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-states-to-count-probable-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-but-most-arent-doing-it/2020/06/07/4aac9a58-9d0a-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... https://google.com?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com?q=ny+coronavirus+cases By "the fucking case numbers", I assume you mean only those statistics which are spoon-fed by an industry that makes money scaring people into noticing advertisements.
      - brazzy 6y ago
        > You have a very disappointing standard for "proof": Lol, are you trying to tell me what sources I'm using? I'm not even American. > https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-states-to-count-probable-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-but-most-arent-doing-it/2020/06/07/4aac9a58-9d0a-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... What's that supposed to tell me? That a liberal agenda is trying to inflate the numbers? Just looking at actual test results isn't any prettier: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... Look at Russia, Mexico, Ukraine, Sweden. > https://google.com/?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=ny+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=florida+coronavirus+cases https://google.com/?q=florida+coronavirus+cases

paganel 6y ago

You're being down-voted for no good reason, as you were discussing on point. Back to Europe, spikes did in fact happen (I do live in an European country experiencing suck a spike, i.e Romania), but those spikes generally happened in countries that hadn't been affected by the virus all that much in the first run, i.e. the Balkans, Portugal (relatively speaking wen comparing it to neighbouring Spain), I'd say even Czechia. Spikes didn't seem to happen in countries like Spain or Italy that had been hit pretty damn hard the first time.

brazzy 6y ago
He's being downvoted for making blatantly false claims. Yours are no better. Romania and Serbia aren's seeing "spikes", they're having a second wave that looks like it will very soon eclipse the first. Sweden's case numbers haven't actually stopped growing. Germany, which had one of the highest case numbers for a long time now had a spike with 1300 cases in a single meat factory. Many other countries have stable low case numbers, which means that they're fine at their current level of containment measures, but could easily see a second wave hit quickly if they undo those measures. I don't think there's any European country with case numbers low enough that they could safely rely on contact tracing alone - South Korea tried that, with the result that they went from single-digit daily case numbers back to mid-double digits. The problem is that in crowded indoor conditions, you get "superspreading" events that can completely destroy all the progress made over months of containment.
- paganel 6y ago
  > they're having a second wave that looks like it will very soon eclipse the firs Yes, that's what a spike means. And for the record, that's exactly what the Romanian Health minister called it two days ago, i.e. not a second wave, because in his opinion the first wave never stopped, but a spike. > Sweden's case numbers haven't actually stopped growing. I know that, and I'll answer that what I answered to other people online: this isn't a video game where we should chase the lowest number of cases the same way as we're chasing a score, this is real life where we should chase the less number of deaths possible. And in Sweden the number of deaths is definitely on a downward spiral. We're going to have to live with this virus, many of us already do, there are not that many economical resources available to keep the majority of the population locked indoors (to say nothing of the psychic and mental effects this is having on the population).

eagsalazar2 6y ago

If you could have seen the local Lowes or a big park in Salt Lake City a couple weeks ago - 70% of people no masks, no social distancing, packed with long lines, many people almost intentionally, defiantly disregarding guidelines. This is happening everywhere in the US and is a totally different level of opening up from what is happening in Europe. Your apples to oranges comparison is completely misguided.

rsynnott 6y ago

> In Europe countries have been lifting their lockdown measures Lifting some of them. Some pubs and restaurants just opened here this week under heavy restrictions, for instance; too soon to see what impact that has on cases. And that was after case numbers were brought down to a few a day; we didn't just lift restrictions while we were still seeing hundreds a day. And of course people are being pretty cautious, mostly still on furlough or working from home, etc. Supermarkets are still letting only a few people in at a time. And the list goes on. We're 'reopening', but we are nowhere close to normal, and a return to normality isn't envisaged at this point; there is no deadline by which the supermarkets will return to full capacity, say. > Massive protests happened in major European cities and nothing happened. Massive protests in NY didn't result in a spike of cases While the results arguably aren't totally in, you'd expect outdoor, largely masked, protest to be a lot lower risk than, say, pubs and restaurants reopening. Purely from a public health perspective it wasn't ideal, but it wasn't remotely as risky as the last stages of reopening. > In most places COVID-19 is over. Done Where? In the last few weeks in Ireland we've had anywhere from 1 to 20 cases per day, more or less at random. It's down a lot from peak, but it hasn't gone away and it could surge back if we screw up (and there are some early indications that it might be doing so; those pubs and restaurants may not be open for long). It's a similar story in most places in Europe (adjusted per capita).