3 ms·
The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19
- vmurthy 6y agoMy mind goes back to Sweden really. It was a sort of (unintended) natural experiment which seems to have gone wrong. In hindsight, the devil (of herd immunity) in details is really an eye-opener for many public health officials I guess. AFAIK, there is still no confirmed research on : * What percentage of people are supposed to develop antibodies to be classified as immune? Per the article, this can widely vary * Even if someone develops antibodies, how long it will last Without these two data points, Sweden's decisions really seem disastrous but hopefully some good comes out of this :(
- collyw 6y agoThey aren't doing as badly as a number of other countries and never needed a lockdown. I would call that a relative success. Looking ta their graphs is interesting, they seem to be having a second wave in terms of new cases, but seem to have peaked with deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ Regarding antibodies, the original SARS (which is the closest related virus) antibodies lasted around 3 years on average, with some people testing positive 17 years later. Doctors are expecting this to be similar, but time will tell.