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This is a dream that we've been hearing for decades and has never materialized. We have consistently seen cities like Boston and San Francisco survive and thriv

This is a dream that we've been hearing for decades and has never materialized. We have consistently seen cities like Boston and San Francisco survive and thrive despite their central industries fading or collapsing. New industries just take their place. Why? Well one very reasonable explanation is the quality of the workforce [1]. These areas are highly educated and there has always been a large amount of skilled workers, probably due to the density of high quality education. I see no reason to believe that this will be the time that the 'Silicon Valley is dying' people will finally be right. [1] National Bureau of Economic Research paper on Boston between 1640 and 2003 https://www.csus.edu/indiv/c/chalmersk/econ251fa12/glaeserboston.pdf https://www.csus.edu/indiv/c/chalmersk/econ251fa12/glaeserbo...

DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago
The biotech IPO bonanza occurring right now is unreal. I think we're entering the next phase of tech if biotech get us out of the pandemic. This should add to SF and Boston cache even more than before.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  A lot of existing biotech companies seem to be selling stock too. I wonder how much they can push it, if investors don't really care about dilution as long as they feel like they're saving the world. People often say the stock market is disconnected from actually funding companies, but it seems like not in this area.
  - DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago
    I wonder how much loose Fed policy is funnelling into these IPO and 2ndary offerings. Honestly, that or like infrastructure is fine by me for things freshly printed money to go into. Investing in science always pays off in the long-run. Our leaders should re-read Science The Endless Frontier, by Vannevar Bush (https://nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm https://nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm)
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      It doesn't make sense to me to blame the Fed; obviously everything is not attracting the same investment. When the stock market bounced back recently, it's not the same stocks. There was a huge amount of reallocation of anticipated future value due to the epidemic. I believe biotech is the best area in the long run, but the fundamental cause of a bubble is that people start believing something is always a good buy at any price, and that always means the price has to go up enough to change minds. The more you believe something is always good, the worse it has to become to change your mind, which is pretty scary to me.

DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago

The biotech IPO bonanza occurring right now is unreal. I think we're entering the next phase of tech if biotech get us out of the pandemic. This should add to SF and Boston cache even more than before.

perl4ever 6y ago
A lot of existing biotech companies seem to be selling stock too. I wonder how much they can push it, if investors don't really care about dilution as long as they feel like they're saving the world. People often say the stock market is disconnected from actually funding companies, but it seems like not in this area.
- DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago
  I wonder how much loose Fed policy is funnelling into these IPO and 2ndary offerings. Honestly, that or like infrastructure is fine by me for things freshly printed money to go into. Investing in science always pays off in the long-run. Our leaders should re-read Science The Endless Frontier, by Vannevar Bush (https://nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm https://nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm)
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    It doesn't make sense to me to blame the Fed; obviously everything is not attracting the same investment. When the stock market bounced back recently, it's not the same stocks. There was a huge amount of reallocation of anticipated future value due to the epidemic. I believe biotech is the best area in the long run, but the fundamental cause of a bubble is that people start believing something is always a good buy at any price, and that always means the price has to go up enough to change minds. The more you believe something is always good, the worse it has to become to change your mind, which is pretty scary to me.