4 ms·

I hope this trend continues, but I feel like after the pandemic ends, prices will bounce back up.

by m_a_g 6y ago

some_furry 6y ago
That depends on two things: 1. If companies will extend their remote-friendly policies beyond the pandemic. 2. If the rising swell of unemployed Americans will pursue a career in tech, and enough of them are willing to relocate to San Francisco (as the trope goes). I don't have a good prediction for the first point (some companies will likely dig their heels in on remote work because "we tried it" even though "remote work" is way different than "working during a pandemic"), but we'll at least see some of the second.
- koheripbal 6y ago
  1. They won't. 2. Those who were made unemployed were not the same people renting expensive SF apartments.
  - some_furry 6y ago
    2. People who are made unemployed by the pandemic who transition into a tech career become recruiter fodder, and will eventually join the candidate pool. That's what I'm talking about, not the sum of all unemployed people.
    - tmpz22 6y ago
      Maybe, but I think there is already a glut of bootcamp-style developers who represent the majority of career-changing opportunities doing front-end development or mobile development after a 3-12 month training. I don't there there are as many entry-level tech opportunities in the bay area as people think their is. The roles that are really hungry seem to always be senior or cross-discipline devops that requires many years across many types of domains.
    - bradlys 6y ago
      > 2. People who are made unemployed by the pandemic who transition into a tech career become recruiter fodder, and will eventually join the candidate pool. That's what I'm talking about, not the sum of all unemployed people. I really don't think the a significant portion of burger flippers have suddenly decided that a CS degree or pay for an expensive technical bootcamp is what they want to do. As far as I can see, the people losing their jobs are not in the educated class. A lot of them didn't go to college, did go to poorly rated schools, and are underachievers.
- majormajor 6y ago
  There's a fun potential unanticipated consequence if companies continue allowing remote work for "professional" sorta roles. Imagine a couple of lawyers working for a firm in Houston making $$$$ who can now keep that same job but live in San Diego and not deal with the same weather... especially, say, if their kids just moved away anyway. You could conceivably have desirable locations being a new sort of "bedroom community" that only the super-highly-paid can afford, regardless of where their employer is based.
  - gnicholas 6y ago
    Perhaps for other roles, but much less so for lawyers. For one thing, legal practice is local and involves networking that happens locally. Additionally, if a lawyer moves to a new state, he might have to take the bar exam again in order to be licensed in that jurisdiction. This applies even if the type of law that the lawyer practices hasn’t changed. This seems a bit crazy, but I actually experienced this as a California lawyer (practicing federal corporate tax) who started spending time in another state where my girlfriend lived. Fortunately she got a job in CA before I had to take the bar in her state.
aantix 6y ago
Do you think people will move back once the pandemic is over?
- HenryKissinger 6y ago
  Not all of them.
- 121789 6y ago
  Yep, I think the vast majority will. Many companies are allowing remote work for the rest of 2020 with no change in compensation. Once that ends, I'd expect people to come back. I think probably another driver of the decreased rents are the recent college graduates that had no reason to move to SF once the virus hit and everything closed. I'd expect them to move to the city once things get back to normal
  - crooked-v 6y ago
    On the other hand, there might be a fair number of people who move to comparable but much cheaper locations (and given the insanity of SF, that includes most other major US cities) while still trying to work remote indefinitely.
    - neilparikh 6y ago
      Yup, I suspect many of those live in SF want to be in a city rather than suburbs, but they're not tied to SF specifically. They just choose SF because that's where the jobs are, and would just as happy in a different urban area.
  - claudeganon 6y ago
    I moved out of LA the fall before the pandemic, but I’d move back in a heartbeat if there was a vaccine and lower rents. It ended up being a very smart move for my partner and I to skip town when we did, but we both miss the city every day.
- rabidrat 6y ago
  "over", hah. All signs point to COVID-19 becoming endemic within our (US) population, like the flu already is. Even if we develop a vaccine, chances are it would not grant long-lasting immunity, and chances are even better that some significant fraction of the population would refuse to get it for partisan reasons.

I hope this trend continues, but I feel like after the pandemic ends, prices will bounce back up.

by m_a_g 6y ago

I hope this trend continues, but I feel like after the pandemic ends, prices will bounce back up.

That depends on two things: 1. If companies will extend their remote-friendly policies beyond the pandemic. 2. If the rising swell of unemployed Americans will pursue a career in tech, and enough of them are willing to relocate to San Francisco (as the trope goes). I don't have a good prediction for the first point (some companies will likely dig their heels in on remote work because "we tried it" even though "remote work" is way different than "working during a pandemic"), but we'll at least see some of the second.

koheripbal 6y ago
1. They won't. 2. Those who were made unemployed were not the same people renting expensive SF apartments.
- some_furry 6y ago
  2. People who are made unemployed by the pandemic who transition into a tech career become recruiter fodder, and will eventually join the candidate pool. That's what I'm talking about, not the sum of all unemployed people.
  - tmpz22 6y ago
    Maybe, but I think there is already a glut of bootcamp-style developers who represent the majority of career-changing opportunities doing front-end development or mobile development after a 3-12 month training. I don't there there are as many entry-level tech opportunities in the bay area as people think their is. The roles that are really hungry seem to always be senior or cross-discipline devops that requires many years across many types of domains.
  - bradlys 6y ago
    > 2. People who are made unemployed by the pandemic who transition into a tech career become recruiter fodder, and will eventually join the candidate pool. That's what I'm talking about, not the sum of all unemployed people. I really don't think the a significant portion of burger flippers have suddenly decided that a CS degree or pay for an expensive technical bootcamp is what they want to do. As far as I can see, the people losing their jobs are not in the educated class. A lot of them didn't go to college, did go to poorly rated schools, and are underachievers.
majormajor 6y ago
There's a fun potential unanticipated consequence if companies continue allowing remote work for "professional" sorta roles. Imagine a couple of lawyers working for a firm in Houston making $$$$ who can now keep that same job but live in San Diego and not deal with the same weather... especially, say, if their kids just moved away anyway. You could conceivably have desirable locations being a new sort of "bedroom community" that only the super-highly-paid can afford, regardless of where their employer is based.
- gnicholas 6y ago
  Perhaps for other roles, but much less so for lawyers. For one thing, legal practice is local and involves networking that happens locally. Additionally, if a lawyer moves to a new state, he might have to take the bar exam again in order to be licensed in that jurisdiction. This applies even if the type of law that the lawyer practices hasn’t changed. This seems a bit crazy, but I actually experienced this as a California lawyer (practicing federal corporate tax) who started spending time in another state where my girlfriend lived. Fortunately she got a job in CA before I had to take the bar in her state.

aantix 6y ago

Do you think people will move back once the pandemic is over?

HenryKissinger 6y ago
Not all of them.
121789 6y ago
Yep, I think the vast majority will. Many companies are allowing remote work for the rest of 2020 with no change in compensation. Once that ends, I'd expect people to come back. I think probably another driver of the decreased rents are the recent college graduates that had no reason to move to SF once the virus hit and everything closed. I'd expect them to move to the city once things get back to normal
- crooked-v 6y ago
  On the other hand, there might be a fair number of people who move to comparable but much cheaper locations (and given the insanity of SF, that includes most other major US cities) while still trying to work remote indefinitely.
  - neilparikh 6y ago
    Yup, I suspect many of those live in SF want to be in a city rather than suburbs, but they're not tied to SF specifically. They just choose SF because that's where the jobs are, and would just as happy in a different urban area.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  I moved out of LA the fall before the pandemic, but I’d move back in a heartbeat if there was a vaccine and lower rents. It ended up being a very smart move for my partner and I to skip town when we did, but we both miss the city every day.
rabidrat 6y ago
"over", hah. All signs point to COVID-19 becoming endemic within our (US) population, like the flu already is. Even if we develop a vaccine, chances are it would not grant long-lasting immunity, and chances are even better that some significant fraction of the population would refuse to get it for partisan reasons.