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The optimistic scenario is that Tesla is so far ahead of the curve in self driving capabilities that they become toyota sized in terms of cars sold, while maina

The optimistic scenario is that Tesla is so far ahead of the curve in self driving capabilities that they become toyota sized in terms of cars sold, while mainaining the low gross margins on software sold. Tesla is largely a software play, which is why it is given a software multiple (10x revenue) vs an automaker, which is given a much lower multiple (.75x revenue)

sunstone 6y ago
Not only this but Tesla is making the future of legacy auto makers look even worse. Consider that, even now, Tesla cars are engineered for 1m miles of operation and batteries with 2m km and 16 years of life are about to come on stream. The implications is that very soon cars will last for over 1m miles and therefore many fewer cars will be sold per year. Indeed the biggest part of the business may become refurbishing the interiors of ten year old cars. Tesla right now is on the cusp of selling cars with these specs while the legacy guys are on the cusp of matching the eight year old Model S. Legacy car makers have a huge challenge in front of them crossing the chasm to the new automotive reality and not many are going to make it.
- gamblor956 6y ago
  The batteries, manufactured by Panasonic, are engineered for 1m miles. The cars themselves have difficulty lasting 2 or 3 years without requiring serious maintenance, assuming you are lucky enough to receive one in good working order when you pick it up. The legacy automakers are other close to catching up to Tesla, and this COVID downtown plays into their hands day better than it does Tesla. It's a lot easier to survive a downtown when your serve the entire market instead of just the luxury market.
  - sunstone 6y ago
    > The cars themselves have difficulty lasting 2 or 3 years without requiring serious maintenance Do you have a reference for this? Most of what I've seen from owners comments and CR, not to mention the 400k mile Tesla X, suggests the opposite.

sunstone 6y ago

Not only this but Tesla is making the future of legacy auto makers look even worse. Consider that, even now, Tesla cars are engineered for 1m miles of operation and batteries with 2m km and 16 years of life are about to come on stream. The implications is that very soon cars will last for over 1m miles and therefore many fewer cars will be sold per year. Indeed the biggest part of the business may become refurbishing the interiors of ten year old cars. Tesla right now is on the cusp of selling cars with these specs while the legacy guys are on the cusp of matching the eight year old Model S. Legacy car makers have a huge challenge in front of them crossing the chasm to the new automotive reality and not many are going to make it.

gamblor956 6y ago
The batteries, manufactured by Panasonic, are engineered for 1m miles. The cars themselves have difficulty lasting 2 or 3 years without requiring serious maintenance, assuming you are lucky enough to receive one in good working order when you pick it up. The legacy automakers are other close to catching up to Tesla, and this COVID downtown plays into their hands day better than it does Tesla. It's a lot easier to survive a downtown when your serve the entire market instead of just the luxury market.
- sunstone 6y ago
  > The cars themselves have difficulty lasting 2 or 3 years without requiring serious maintenance Do you have a reference for this? Most of what I've seen from owners comments and CR, not to mention the 400k mile Tesla X, suggests the opposite.