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If you read the book Black Swan, it is exactly one of its defining characteristics that it is unpredictable. The only thing you can do against black swans is ma
by prox 6y ago
If you read the book Black Swan, it is exactly one of its defining characteristics that it is unpredictable. The only thing you can do against black swans is making systems less fragile.
- fulafel 6y agoYes, there is a big difference between predicting an occurrence and theoretically knowing about it's possibility / eventual occurrence. Here's Talebs essay for those without the book: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6fc4/ed36e247194c9c0b7adfec8d92abebea289a.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6fc4/ed36e247194c9c0b7adfec...
- WA 6y agoSmall nitpick: Unpredictable for the observer. So in a way this pandemic was a black swan for some (naive) people. On the other hand, I think it's good that someone like Taleb now goes around and pokes all the policymakers and governments that nothing of this was unpredictable and Corona is a white swan event.
- prox 6y agoIt’s been a while I read it, but you are right. Personally I think it already ranks amongst the most important books of the 21st century. Everyone should read it.