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That’s just one of the approaches, another one is counting excess deaths - delta between predicted and actual mortality rates. It normalizes against external f

That’s just one of the approaches, another one is counting excess deaths - delta between predicted and actual mortality rates. It normalizes against external factors, such as poor testing infrastructure or (in some countries) government pressure to keep the numbers low. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking...

m0zg 6y ago
Could it be that a good fraction of those "excess deaths" is caused by people choosing not to seek (or being unable to get) medical help with the conditions they already have? 2.65 million people die in the US in an average year in total, most of things like cancer or heart disease. Some of those things you can treat, some you can't nowadays, because procedures are "elective" and hospitals don't do them.
- pcl 6y ago
  Yes, and there is a good argument that such deaths are COVID-related, even though the virus itself didn’t infect the person. This is one of the reasons that “excess deaths” is a compelling measure.
  - ballenf 6y ago
    If I shoot you to prevent you from falling over the edge of a cliff, is that a fall-related death? Causation is difficult. Obviously the answer is somewhere in the middle. I just hope that in the coming years, researchers are permitted and incentived to analyze the numbers in detail.
- fredophile 6y ago
  If you won't or can't get medical care due to covid and die from your lack of medical care I'd say it's fair to say that you died because of covid.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
  No. Look at states, or regions in other countries, that were under lockdown even though they did not (yet) have high numbers of COVID infections. Hospitals in these places also cancelled elective surgeries, and people avoided going doctors. But there was no excess mortality.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    > Hospitals in these places also cancelled elective surgeries, and people avoided going doctors. But there was no excess mortality. Read that again. Seems implausible AF.
gadders 6y ago
The excess deaths have just been shifted earlier in the year, as a large part of the people that die from Coronoa would have died within a year anyway. Probably towards the end of the year the excess deaths will dip below the average.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
  Someone aged 80 today has another 9 years to live today, according to the actuary tables. Writing these people off as "dead anyway" is neither very nice, nor supported by the data.
  - gadders 6y ago
    Please show me where in my post where I said that. You seem to be arguing against something I didn't say.

m0zg 6y ago

Could it be that a good fraction of those "excess deaths" is caused by people choosing not to seek (or being unable to get) medical help with the conditions they already have? 2.65 million people die in the US in an average year in total, most of things like cancer or heart disease. Some of those things you can treat, some you can't nowadays, because procedures are "elective" and hospitals don't do them.

pcl 6y ago
Yes, and there is a good argument that such deaths are COVID-related, even though the virus itself didn’t infect the person. This is one of the reasons that “excess deaths” is a compelling measure.
- ballenf 6y ago
  If I shoot you to prevent you from falling over the edge of a cliff, is that a fall-related death? Causation is difficult. Obviously the answer is somewhere in the middle. I just hope that in the coming years, researchers are permitted and incentived to analyze the numbers in detail.
fredophile 6y ago
If you won't or can't get medical care due to covid and die from your lack of medical care I'd say it's fair to say that you died because of covid.
IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
No. Look at states, or regions in other countries, that were under lockdown even though they did not (yet) have high numbers of COVID infections. Hospitals in these places also cancelled elective surgeries, and people avoided going doctors. But there was no excess mortality.
- m0zg 6y ago
  > Hospitals in these places also cancelled elective surgeries, and people avoided going doctors. But there was no excess mortality. Read that again. Seems implausible AF.

gadders 6y ago

The excess deaths have just been shifted earlier in the year, as a large part of the people that die from Coronoa would have died within a year anyway. Probably towards the end of the year the excess deaths will dip below the average.

IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
Someone aged 80 today has another 9 years to live today, according to the actuary tables. Writing these people off as "dead anyway" is neither very nice, nor supported by the data.
- gadders 6y ago
  Please show me where in my post where I said that. You seem to be arguing against something I didn't say.