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>comes as a surprise Isn't that related to predictability?

• bryanrasmussen 6y ago
  people get surprised all the time by events that have a low percentage chance of happening but are not unique, I mean people get surprised when their spouse cheats on them and that isn't particularly unlikely. Anyway, I would agree a black swan needs a very low chance of happening, but not that it has to be the first time it has ever happened. Certainly when the Europeans saw the black swan in Australia it was the first time they had seen one, but probably not the first time they had seen a variation of a species in a non-European location that looked slightly different than expected. on edit: some clarifications.