35 ms·
The definition from Wikipedia reads: "The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a
by hgibbs 6y ago
The definition from Wikipedia reads: "The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."
So predictability is not a criteria.
- ses1984 6y ago>comes as a surprise Isn't that related to predictability?
- bryanrasmussen 6y agopeople get surprised all the time by events that have a low percentage chance of happening but are not unique, I mean people get surprised when their spouse cheats on them and that isn't particularly unlikely. Anyway, I would agree a black swan needs a very low chance of happening, but not that it has to be the first time it has ever happened. Certainly when the Europeans saw the black swan in Australia it was the first time they had seen one, but probably not the first time they had seen a variation of a species in a non-European location that looked slightly different than expected. on edit: some clarifications.
- mercutio2 6y agoWikipedia is not an authority on anything. It will be just as wrong as the misconceptions of whoever wrote the synopsis. The term black swan in this context was coined by Nassim Taleb; he wrote a book about it, which when fully understood distinguishes predictable but rare from completely unexpected. That Wikipedia manages to mangle this doesn’t mean the originator of the term suddenly became wrong.