4 ms·

How would it kill us all? I suppose it could lead to a Venus like atmosphere if things got really crazy. Realistically the worst case scenario would just lead

How would it kill us all? I suppose it could lead to a Venus like atmosphere if things got really crazy. Realistically the worst case scenario would just lead to coastal areas being uninhabitable and widespread famine and unrest while the worlds farming and population gets redistributed to more habitable latitudes. I don't think it would ever wipe out EVERYONE even if it's a sizable percentage.

jbay808 6y ago
I agree with you. But you don't have to go quite all the way to Venus for a plausible scenario that would, probably, wipe out humanity. See page 6 of this link for a scary infographic. http://burro.case.edu/Academics/USNA229/impactfromthedeep.pdf http://burro.case.edu/Academics/USNA229/impactfromthedeep.pd... Of course direct emissions won't get there alone, but runaway feedbacks could.
infogulch 6y ago
There is no "redistribution to more habitable latitudes" (a breathtakingly vast understatement of human suffering) without all out war. There is no all out war without nuclear destruction at our own hand.
justin66 6y ago
Intuitively it seems very difficult to see how things could go all the way towards being Venus-like if all the positive feedback mechanisms kick off. We're really, really similar to Venus, but Earth's crust wouldn't appear to have that many greenhouse chemicals stored up. (Unless geologists have failed to account for something) But there's a long distance between Venusian hellscape (hot enough to melt lead and raining sulfuric acid) and what we have today, and most of it is pretty awful for us. "Kill everybody" isn't crazy.
titzer 6y ago
If your plan involves moving the entirety of food production to areas of the globe that are currently permafrost and have no comparable ecosystems to where we are currently farming, you are going to have a bad time. You can't just bootstrap a healthy, thriving set of soil conditions, food webs, etc in a couple years. These things normally take thousands or even tens of thousands of years on geological timescales. Just look at how long it takes deciduous forests to reach their apex state: thousands of years.
npunt 6y ago
Sorry, we don't even understand the 'realistic' worst case scenario. We've blown past previous estimates of temperature rise and atmospheric co2 by decades. It's a nonlinear system with many unknowns, this is why its critical we operate on the precautionary principle.

jbay808 6y ago

I agree with you. But you don't have to go quite all the way to Venus for a plausible scenario that would, probably, wipe out humanity. See page 6 of this link for a scary infographic. http://burro.case.edu/Academics/USNA229/impactfromthedeep.pdf http://burro.case.edu/Academics/USNA229/impactfromthedeep.pd... Of course direct emissions won't get there alone, but runaway feedbacks could.

infogulch 6y ago

There is no "redistribution to more habitable latitudes" (a breathtakingly vast understatement of human suffering) without all out war. There is no all out war without nuclear destruction at our own hand.

justin66 6y ago

Intuitively it seems very difficult to see how things could go all the way towards being Venus-like if all the positive feedback mechanisms kick off. We're really, really similar to Venus, but Earth's crust wouldn't appear to have that many greenhouse chemicals stored up. (Unless geologists have failed to account for something) But there's a long distance between Venusian hellscape (hot enough to melt lead and raining sulfuric acid) and what we have today, and most of it is pretty awful for us. "Kill everybody" isn't crazy.

titzer 6y ago

If your plan involves moving the entirety of food production to areas of the globe that are currently permafrost and have no comparable ecosystems to where we are currently farming, you are going to have a bad time. You can't just bootstrap a healthy, thriving set of soil conditions, food webs, etc in a couple years. These things normally take thousands or even tens of thousands of years on geological timescales. Just look at how long it takes deciduous forests to reach their apex state: thousands of years.

npunt 6y ago

Sorry, we don't even understand the 'realistic' worst case scenario. We've blown past previous estimates of temperature rise and atmospheric co2 by decades. It's a nonlinear system with many unknowns, this is why its critical we operate on the precautionary principle.